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| 1 | To mask or not to mask:Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic显示文摘Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial,though increasingly recommended,and the potential of this intervention is not well understood.We develop a compartmental model for assessing the communitywide impact of mask use by the general,asymptomatic public,a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious.Model simulations,using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington,suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths.Moreover,mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness(as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked)and coverage rate(as a fraction of the general population),while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes(death,hospitalizations)is highly nonlinear,indicating masks could synergize with other nonpharmaceutical measures.Notably,masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission.Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios,for Washington and New York state,suggest that immediate near universal(80%)adoption of moderately(50%)effective masks could prevent on the order of 17e45%of projected deaths over two months in New York,while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34e58%,absent other changes in epidemic dynamics.Even very weak masks(20%effective)can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing:InWashington,where baseline transmission is much less intense,80%adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24e65%(and peak deaths 15e69%),compared to 2e9%mortality reduction in New York(peak death reduction 9e18%).Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic.The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices(such as social-distancing),and when adoption is nearly universal(nation-wide)and compliance is high. | Steffen E.Eikenberry Marina Mancuso Enahoro Iboi Tin Phan Keenan Eikenberry Yang Kuang Eric Kostelich Abba B.Gumel | 2020 | Infectious Disease Modelling2020，5，1： | 8 |
| 2 | Calculating stable and unstable manifolds显示文摘 | You Z Kostelich E J Yorke J A | 1991 | Int J Bifurc Chaos Appl Sci Eng1991，1，3： | 1 |
| 3 | Characterization of an experimental strange attractor by periodic orbits显示文摘 | Lathrop D P Kostelich E J | 1989 | Phys Rev1989，40，： | 1 |
| 4 | Noise reduction in chaotic time series data: A survey of common methods 显示文摘 | Kostelich E J and Schreiber T | 1993 | Phys Rev E1993，48，3： | 1 |
| 5 | Adaptive targeting of chaos 显示文摘 | FARINI A KOSTELICH E J | 1997 | Physiological Review E1997，55，1： | 1 |
| 6 | Noise reduction in chaotic time-series data: A survey of common methods显示文摘 | Eric J Kostelich Thomas Schreiber | 1993 | Phvsi Rev E1993，48，3： | 1 |
| 7 | Chaotic phenomena in power systems:detection and applications显示文摘 | O'Neill Carrillo E Heydt G T Kostelich E J | 1999 | Electric Machines and Power Systems1999，27，1： | 1 |
| 8 | Chaotic phenomena in power systems: detection and applications显示文摘 | O'Neill-Carrillo E Heydt G T Kostelich E J | 1999 | Electric Machines and Power Systems1999，27，1： | 1 |
| 9 | Self-organization and chaos in a fluidized bed显示文摘 | Daw C S Kostelich E J | 1995 | Phys Rev Lett1995，75，12： | 1 |
| 10 | Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal chaos: a local ensemble transform Kalman filter 显示文摘 | Hunt B R Kostelich E J Szunyogh I | 2007 | Physics D: Applied Phys- ics2007，230，12： | 1 |
| 11 | Noise reduction: finding the simplest dynamical system consistent with the data 显示文摘 | Kostelich E J Yorke J A | 1990 | Physica D1990，41，： | 1 |
| 12 | Noise reduction in chaotic time-series data: A survey of common methods显示文摘 | Kostelich E J Schreiber T | 1993 | Physical Review E1993，48，3： | 1 |
| 13 | Assessing a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter:Perfect model experiments with the NCEP global model显示文摘 | SZUNYOGH I KOSTELICH E J GYARMATI G | 2005 | Tellus2005，57，： | 1 |
| 14 | A local ensemble transform Kalman data assimilation system for the NCEP global model显示文摘 | SZUNYOGH I KOSTELICH E J GYARMATI G | 2008 | Tellus2008，60，： | 1 |
| 15 | Four-dimensional ensemble Kalman filtering显示文摘 | HUNT B R KALNAY E KOSTELICH E J | 2004 | Tellus2004，56，： | 1 |
| 16 | Calculating stable and unstable manifolds显示文摘 | YOU Z KOSTELICH E J YORKE J A | 1991 | International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos1991，1，3： | 1 |
| 17 | Noise Reduction in Chaotic Time Series: A Survey of Common Methods显示文摘 | Kostelich E J Schreiber T | 1993 | Physical Review E(S1063-651X)1993，48，3： | 1 |
| 18 | Characterization of an experimental strange attrator by periodic orbits 显示文摘 | LATHROP D P KOSTELICH E J | 1989 | Physical Review A1989，40，10： | 1 |
| 19 | Chaotic phenomena in power systems: detection and applications 显示文摘 | E O′ Neill-Carrillo G T Heydt E J Kostelich | 1999 | Electric Machines and Power systems1999，27，1： | 1 |
| 20 | Noise reduction in chaotic time series : a survey of common methods显示文摘 | Kostelich E J Schreiber T | 1993 | Physical Review E1993，48，3： | 1 |
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