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| 1 | 不同隔离措施对中国武汉市早期阶段的新型冠状病毒传播影响的机理建模研究显示文摘2019年年底新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19,简称新冠肺炎)在中国湖北省武汉市暴发并迅速蔓延至全国各地及海外,成为人类历史上首次由冠状病毒引起的全球大流行疫情.截止2020年3月18日,在做出巨大努力和付出沉重代价的前提下,中国的疫情已基本受到控制.在世界其他地区,例如欧洲和中东正处于极端困难中.湖北武汉的经验对于其他地区的抗疫工作有非常重要的参考价值.本文通过建立仓室模型来研究新冠肺炎的传播动力学,尤其探讨针对轻度和重度病例的不同隔离措施对疫情发展的影响,并且通过拟合2020年1月份武汉的累积确诊病例数来估计部分参数.结果表明,如果严格的措施不到位,新冠肺炎感染人数在短期内可能指数增长.基本再生数为2.80,受人口的易感性和传染性的影响其可在0.97至3.24之间变化.仿真结果表明,降低接触率是有效控制暴发的关键举措.在疫区对确诊和疑似病例进行及时隔离或住院,以及对密切接触者的隔离观察对减缓新冠肺炎的传播至关重要. | Musa Salihu S. 高道舟 赵时 杨琳 楼一均 何岱海 | 2020 | 应用数学学报2020，43，2： | 7 |
| 2 | Estimation of exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)in Africa显示文摘Background:Since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Africa was detected on February 14,2020,the cumulative confirmations reached 15207 including 831 deaths by April 13,2020.Africa has been described as one of the most vulnerable region with the COVID-19 infection during the initial phase of the outbreak,due to the fact that Africa is a great commercial partner of China and some other EU and American countries.Which result in large volume of travels by traders to the region more frequently and causing African countries face even bigger health threat during the COVID-19 pandemic.Furthermore,the fact that the control and management of COVID-19 pandemic rely heavily on a country's health care system,and on average Africa has poor health care system which make it more vulnerable indicating a need for timely intervention to curtail the spread.In this paper,we estimate the exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number(R0)of COVID-19 in Africa to show the potential of the virus to spread,and reveal the importance of sustaining stringent health measures to control the disease in Africa.Methods:We analyzed the initial phase of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Africa between 1 March and 13 April 2020,by using the simple exponential growth model.We examined the publicly available materials published by the WHO situation report to show the potential of COVID-19 to spread without sustaining strict health measures.The Poisson likelihood framework is adopted for data fitting and parameter estimation.We modelled the distribution of COVID-19 generation interval(GI)as Gamma distributions with a mean of 4.7 days and standard deviation of 2.9 days estimated from previous work,and compute the basic reproduction number.Results:We estimated the exponential growth rate as 0.22 per day(95%CI:0.20-0.24),and the basic reproduction number,R0,as 2.37(95%CI:2.22-2.51)based on the assumption that the exponential growth starting from 1 March 2020.With an R0 at 2.37,we quantified the instantaneous transmissibility of the outbreak by the time-varying effective reproductive number to show the potential of COVID-19 to spread across African region.Conclusions:The initial growth of COVID-19 cases in Africa was rapid and showed large variations across countries.Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning against further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa. | Salihu S.Musa Shi Zhao Maggie H.Wang Abdurrazaq G.Habib Umar T.Mustapha Daihai He | 2020 | Infectious Diseases of Poverty2020，9，4： | 3 |
| 3 | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 epidemic with effect of awareness programs显示文摘Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-COV-2)is a novel virus that emerged in China in late 2019 and caused a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).The epidemic has largely been controlled in China since March 2020,but continues to inflict severe public health and socioeconomic burden in other parts of the world.One of the major reasons for China’s success for the fight against the epidemic is the effectiveness of its health care system and enlightenment(awareness)programs which play a vital role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.Nigeria is currently witnessing a rapid increase of the epidemic likely due to its unsatisfactory health care system and inadequate awareness programs.In this paper,we propose a mathematical model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Nigeria.Our model incorporates awareness programs and different hospitalization strategies for mild and severe cases,to assess the effect of public awareness on the dynamics of COVID-19 infection.We fit the model to the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Nigeria from 29 March to 12 June 2020.We find that the epidemic could increase if awareness programs are not properly adopted.We presumed that the effect of awareness programs could be estimated.Further,our results suggest that the awareness programs and timely hospitalization of active cases are essential tools for effective control and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria and beyond.Finally,we perform sensitive analysis to point out the key parameters that should be considered to effectively control the epidemic. | Salihu Sabiu Musa Sania Qureshi Shi Zhao Abdullahi Yusuf Umar Tasiu Mustapha Daihai He | 2021 | Infectious Disease Modelling2021，6，1： | 3 |
| 4 | Tuberculosis and HIV disease: two dec- ades of a dual repidemie显示文摘 | Aliyu MH Salihu HM | 2003 | Wien KIin Woehenehr2003，115，： | 1 |
| 5 | Larvicidal activity of extracts and triterpenoids from Lantana camara显示文摘 | FATOPE M O SALIHU L ASANTE S K | 2002 | Pharmaceutical Biology2002，40，56： | 1 |
| 6 | Previous cesarean delivery and risks of placenta previa and placental abruption显示文摘 | Getahun D Oyelese Y Salihu H M et a1 | 2006 | Obstet Gyneeol2006，107，4： | 1 |
| 7 | Pseudo-Meigs syndrome with multiple synchronous benign and malignant pelvic tumors显示文摘 | Junaid I Paz R Salihu HM | 2006 | Arch Gynecol Obstet2006，273，5： | 1 |
| 8 | Prevalence of mastitis in lactating cows in some selected commercial dairy farms in sokoto me- tropolis显示文摘 | Junaidu A U Salihu M D | 2011 | Adv Appl Sci Res2011，2，2： | 1 |
| 9 | Rapid detection and quantitation of hepatitis B virus DNA by real-time PCR using a new fluoreseent (FRET) deteetion system 显示文摘 | Aliyu SH Aliyu MH Salihu HM | 2004 | J Clin Virol2004，30，2： | 1 |
| 10 | Mode of delivery and the survival of macrosomia infants in the United States,1995-1999显示文摘 | Boulet S L Salihu H M Alexander G R | 2009 | Birth2009，33，4： | 1 |
| 11 | Previous cesarean delivery and risks of placenta previa and placental abruption显示文摘 | Getahun D Oyelese Y Salihu H M | 2006 | Obstet Gynecol2006，107，4： | 1 |
| 12 | Previous cesarean de-livery and risks of placenta previa and placental abruption显示文摘 | Getahun D Oyelese Y Salihu H M | 2006 | Obstet-Gyneco2006，107，： | 1 |
| 13 | Mode of delivery and birth outcomes of macrosomic infants显示文摘 | Boulet SL Salihu HM Alexander GR | 2004 | J Obstet Gynaecol2004，24，6： | 1 |
| 14 | Mode of delivery and the surviv- al of macrosomic infants in the United States, 1995-1999 显示文摘 | Boulet SL Salihu HM Alexander GR | 2006 | Birth2006，33，4： | 1 |
| 15 | Mode of delivery and birth outcomes of macrosomle infants显示文摘 | Boule* SL Salihu HM Alexander OR | 2004 | J Ohstet Gynaecol2004，24，6： | 1 |
| 16 | Early mortality in twin pregnancies complicated by premature rupture of membranes in the United States显示文摘 | Kristensen S Salihu HM Ding H | 2004 | J Obstet Gynaecol2004，24，3： | 1 |
| 17 | Macrosomic birth in the United States: determinant, outcomes, and proposed grades of risk显示文摘 | Boulet SL Alexander GR Salihu H | 2003 | Am J Obstet Gynecol2003，188，5： | 1 |
| 18 | Dandy-Walker syndrome, associated anomalies and survival through infancy: a populationbased study 显示文摘 | Salihu HM Komosky JL Druschel CM | 2008 | Fetal Diagn Ther2008，24，2： | 1 |
| 19 | Rapid detection and quantitation of hepatitis B virus DNA by real-time PCR using a new fluorescent(FRET) detection system显示文摘 | Aliyu S H Aliyu M H Salihu H M | 2004 | J Clin Virol2004，30，2： | 1 |
| 20 | Maternal pregnancy weight gain and the risk of placental abruption显示文摘 | Salihu HM Diamond E August EM | 2013 | Nutr Rev2013，71，1： | 1 |
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