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| 1 | 古气候演化特征、驱动与反馈及对现代气候变化研究的启示意义显示文摘古气候与现代气候变化研究如何有效结合,特别是古气候研究如何为理解现代气候变化过程提供背景条件、边界约束和理论框架,值得深入探讨。文章以现代、历史时期、全新世、晚第四纪和新生代为时间基线,回顾阐述了过去气候演变特征、成因机制及其对现代气候变化研究的启示意义,探讨了过去与现代气候变化融合研究中存在的不确定性。过去气候演化过程的研究,加深了人们对地球气候系统运行机制的理解。研究表明,各个时期中,地球气候经历了不同相位、幅度和速率的变化,气候系统各分量之间发生了复杂的相互作用,以地表温度为代表的地球表面热力环境演化是各不同阶段气候变化的基本表现形式。全球温度变化不仅受到太阳输出辐射、地球轨道参数和地球构造运动等的影响,而且与地球表层水圈中的海洋、冰冻圈中的大陆冰盖、生物圈中的海洋浮游生物和陆地植被,以及大气圈中的温室气体、粉尘气溶胶、水汽和云等活跃组分之间,存在着多尺度复杂反馈作用。在同一时间尺度上,气候系统分量的互馈通路可能是同向的、可比的,各分量之间的对应关系或具有一致性,研究结论对于预估未来气候变化有借鉴意义;但在不同时间尺度上,气候系统各分量之间的相互联系机制可能难有一致性和可比性,古今互鉴,就需要慎重。 | 任国玉 姜大膀 燕青 | 2021 | 第四纪研究2021，41，3： | 15 |
| 2 | 基于高空间分辨率卫星遥感数据的探测环境变化对气温的影响显示文摘以南京市为例,利用陆地卫星和夜间灯光卫星的光学遥感信息并结合地理信息,构建了气象观测站局地(周边2 km缓冲区)探测环境表征参数:人为活动影响参数(人口密度和人为热通量)、几何参数(土地利用类型的面积占比和海拔)和物理光学参数(不透水表面面积占比和植被指数),研究了它们对气温观测的影响。结果表明,在相同的天气背景下,当不透水表面面积占比和建成区面积占比减少,植被指数和水体面积占比增加时,气温下降。建立了气象观测站局地的植被指数、不透水表面面积占比和水体面积占比与气温关系的定量回归模型,该模型通过了99.9%的置信度检验。所提方法可用于定量评估某一区域高空间分辨率气温的分布。 | 陈世涵 李玲 蒋弘凡 居伟杰 张曼玉 刘端阳 杨元建 | 2020 | 光学学报2020，40，10： | 6 |
| 3 | 1961~2014年中国大陆地区近地面气温和地表温度垂直递减率的空间格局和趋势差异显示文摘近地表温度垂直递减率反映了地表大气稳定度.基于1961~2014年中国大陆地区约2200个地面观测站点数据,本研究计算并比较了地表温度和近地面气温温度垂直递减率(γTs和γTa)的时空变化.研究发现,γTs和γTa具有相似的多年区域平均和季节循环变化.但相较于γTs,γTa在高纬度地区的数值更高,并且夏季的γTs高于γTa.受大尺度平流影响,华北地区γTs和γTa较低,抑制了空气污染物的垂直扩散,而污染物积累可能会导致其进一步减少.因对地表太阳辐射、大气向下长波辐射及降水频率变化的敏感度不同,中国大陆地区γTs和γTa的长期变化趋势存在明显差异.温度垂直递减率在本研究的改进将有助于了解因全球变暖和污染事件的不断发展而引起的大气稳定性的变化,也将有利于未来有关区域气候变化的研究. | 贺嫣颐 王开存 | 2020 | Science Bulletin2020，65，14： | 5 |
| 4 | Changes in climate regimes over China based on a high-resolution dataset显示文摘During the 20th century the global climate has been shifted towards warmer and drier regimes, mainly due to anthropogenic warming [1,2]. Climate changes can notably disrupt the environment and ecosystems. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on ecoregions, the Kdppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification [3] is widely used because it was constructed on the basis of surface vegetation. The K-T classification system combines temperature, precipitation, and their seasonality into a single metric. Six major climate types and several sub-climate types are defined (A: tropical, B: dry, C: subtropical, D: temperate, E: subpolar, F: polar). Each K-T climate type is consistent with certain prevalent plant species. Definitions and criteria of K-T climate types were outlined by Feng et al.[4]. | Wei Huang Jingjing Yan Chang Liu Tingting Xie | 2019 | Science Bulletin2019，64，6： | 3 |
| 5 | 河北保定百年均一化逐日气温序列的建立及其气候变化特征显示文摘基于国家气象信息中心收集整理的保定气象站1919年以来逐日最高和最低气温观测数据,首先,通过数据质量控制剔除原始观测资料中因人工观测或记录、仪器故障及数字化人工录入等导致的错误数据;其次,基于天津百年均一化逐日气温数据,利用标准化序列法对质控后的原始观测数据进行延长插补;进而通过两种途径建立的年和月尺度参考序列,利用惩罚最大t检验(Penalized Maximal T,PMT)和分位数匹配法(Quantile-Matching, QM),修正了插补后保定气象站日最高和最低气温序列中因数据插补、迁站和仪器变更等造成的非均一性影响,由此建立了河北保定1912—2019年均一化最高和最低气温日值序列。分析表明,构建的年平均气温距平序列百年尺度的年代际和趋势变化特点与Berkeley Earth-monthly、CRUTS4.03和GHCNV3基本一致,并且与整个京津冀区域相比,很好地反映出保定地区城市快速发展所带来的增暖变化特点。另外,从百年极端温度变化来看,保定地区1912年以来年和季节极端温度也是呈明显的增暖变化,年和秋季极端最低气温(TNn)的增暖趋势分别为0.340℃/(10 a)、0.404℃/(10 a),对应的气温日较差(DTR)分别为-0.118℃/(10 a)、-0.215℃/(10 a)(均通过置信度为95%显著性检验)。 | 司鹏 郝立生 傅宁 王敏 赵煜飞 梁冬坡 | 2023 | 大气科学学报2023，46，2： | 3 |
| 6 | The temperature record of the Holocene: progress and controversies显示文摘The pattern of temperature variation during the Holocene, the most recent geological epoch, has been studied intensively, partly because of its significance for the development of human civilization. Prior to the 1980s, based on ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica, the climate of the Holocene was thought to have been rather stable (1)However, this view was challenged by the discovery of a substantial amount of contrary evidence. | Juzhi Hou Can-Ge Li Shihyu Lee | 2019 | Science Bulletin2019，64，9： | 3 |
| 7 | 资料均一化对气温变化趋势及其城市化偏差估计的影响:以北京地区为例显示文摘当前的地面气候观测资料普遍存在非气候性因素导致的非均一性,对气候变化监测和研究结论可靠性造成重要影响。结合观测台站的历史沿革数据,使用ACMANT和Pairwise Comparisons方法以及RHtest V4软件,对北京地区20个台站均一化前的月平均气温序列进行了非均一性检验和订正,最后评估了均一化对北京地区气温序列变化趋势及其城市化偏差估算的影响。结果表明:除元数据中记录的断点外,无元数据记录的断点也会对序列的趋势变化造成明显影响,其中乡村站最显著;经过订正,1958—2018年整个北京地区、乡村站以及城市站增温趋势分别为0.27℃/(10 a)、0.10℃/(10 a)和0.32℃/(10 a),较订正前分别上升了0.03℃/(10 a)、0.06℃/(10 a)和0.02℃/(10 a)。利用均一化资料估算,1958—2018年北京观象台的城市化影响为0.24℃/(10 a),城市化贡献率为70.2%,评估结果较前人结论有所降低。可见,在现有的北京地区气温资料序列中,仍可能存在较明显的非均一性和未被记录的断点,对区域平均气温趋势估算具有显著影响。 | 何佳骏 任国玉 张盼峰 | 2021 | 气候变化研究进展2021，17，5： | 2 |
| 8 | Are China's Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs) so bad?显示文摘A recent article by Robiou du Pont and Meinshausen [1](hereafter RM2018) declared that when taken as benchmark by other countries, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of India, the EU, the USA and China lead to 2.6, 3.2, 4 and over 5.1 °C warmings. RM2018 was quickly referred in media that China's NDC is 'one of the worst to contribute to the global effort to reach the targets under Paris Agreement”. | Kejun Jiang Chenmin He Chenfei Qu Chunyan Dai Yifei Zhang Sha Chen Pianpian Xiang | 2019 | Science Bulletin2019，64，6： | 1 |
| 9 | 祁连山冰川变化及其脆弱性显示文摘Glaciers are a reliable freshwater resource in arid regions of West China and the vulnerability of its changes is closely related to regional ecosystem services and economic sustainable development. Here, we took the Qilian Mountains as an example and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of glacier changes from 1998 to 2018, based on remote sensing images and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory. We estimated the basic organizational framework and evaluation index system of glacier change vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, which covered the factors of physical geography, population status and socio-economic level. We analyzed the spatial and temporal evolutions of glacier change vulnerability by using the vulnerability evaluation model. Our results suggested that:(1) Glacier area and volume decreased by 71.12±98.98 km^(2) and 5.59±4.41 km^(3), respectively, over the recent two decades, which mainly occurred at the altitude below 4800 m, with an area shrinking rate of 2.5%. In addition, glaciers in the northern aspect(northwest, north and northeast) had the largest area reduction. Different counties exhibited remarkable discrepancies in glacier area reduction, Tianjuan and Minle presented the maximum and minimum decrease, respectively.(2) Glacier change vulnerability level showed a decreasing trend in space from the central to the northwestern and southeastern regions with remarkable differences. Vulnerability level had increased significantly over time and was mainly concentrated in moderate, high and extreme levels with typical characteristics of phases and regional complexity. Our study can not only help to understand and master the impacts of recent glacier changes on natural and social aspects but also be conducive to evaluate the influences of glacier retreat on socio-economic developments in the future, thus providing references for formulating relevant countermeasures to achieve regional sustainable development. | 蔡兴冉 李忠勤 徐春海 | 2022 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2022，32，1： | 0 |
| 10 | 长年代气候观测资料构建研究进展显示文摘归纳了近年来国内外在全球、区域和局地尺度长年代气候观测资料构建研究中所取得的重要成果,分析了全球表面温度及降水等气候数据集产品及其为气候变化科学方面所呈现的重要价值,讨论了长年代序列构建过程中需要改进的技术方法以及亟待解决的关键科技问题。分析表明,长年代气候资料的构建技术在支撑气候变化业务发展方面取得了一定进展,但立足新形势下数据供给能力建设的迫切需要,丰富要素种类、恢复历史资料完整性、提高数据产品质量、细化研究对象空间尺度及研究要素时间尺度仍是今后需要解决的关键问题。 | 司鹏 徐文慧 王敏 | 2023 | 科技导报2023，41，21： | 0 |
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