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| 1 | Prognostic factors for chronic severe hepatitis and construction of a prognostic model显示文摘BACKGROUND: Chronic severe hepatitis is a serious illness with a high mortality rate. Discussion of prognostic judgment criteria for chronic severe hepatitis is of great value in clinical guidance. This study was designed to investigate the clinical and laboratory indices affecting the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis and construct a prognostic model. METHODS: The clinical and laboratory indices of 213 patients with chronic severe hepatitis within 24 hours after diagnosis were analyzed retrospectively. Death or survival was limited to within 3 months after diagnosis. RESULTS: The mortality of all patients was 47.42%. Compared with the survival group, the age, basis of hepatocirrhosis, infection, degree of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and the levels of total bilirubin (TBil), total cholesterol (CHO), cholinesterase (CHE), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), blood creatinine (Cr), blood sodium ion (Na), peripheral blood leukocytes (WBC), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR) of blood coagulation and prothrombin time (PT) were significantly different in the group who died, but the levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), albumin (ALB) and hemoglobin (HGB) were not different between the two groups. At the same time, a regression model, Logit (P)=1.573×Age+1.338× HE-1.608×CHO+0.011×Cr-0.109×Na+1.298×INR+11.057, was constructed by logistic regression analysis and the prognostic value of the model was higher than that of the MELD score.CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate analysis excels univariate anlysis in the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis, and the regression model is of significant value in the prognosis of this disease. | Li, Qian Yuan, Gui-Yu Tang, Ke-Cheng Liu, Guo-Wang Wang, Rui Cao, Wu-Kui | 2008 | Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International2008，7，1： | 13 |
| 2 | Prognostic values of the integrated model incorporating the volume of metastatic regional cervical lymph node and pretreatment serum Epstein-Barr virus DNA copy number in predicting distant metastasis in patients with N1 nasopharyngeal carcinoma显示文摘Background: According to the 7 th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer(AJCC) staging system, over50% of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC) have N1 disease at initial diagnosis. However, patients with N1 NPC are relatively under-researched, and the metastasis risk of this group is not well-stratified. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic values of gross tumor volume of metastatic regional lymph node(GTVnd) and pretreatment serum copy number of Epstein-Barr virus(EBV) DNA in predicting distant metastasis of patients with N1 NPC, and to develop an integrated prognostic model that incorporates GTVnd and EBV DNA copy number for this group of patients.Methods: The medical records of 787 newly diagnosed patients with nonmetastatic, histologically proven N1 NPC who were treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between November 2009 and February 2012 were analyzed. Computed tomography-derived GTVnd was measured using the summation-of-area technique. Blood samples were collected before treatment to quantify plasma EBV DNA. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the cut-off point for GTVnd, and the area under the ROC curve was used to assess the predicted validity of GTVnd. The survival rates were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the survival curves were compared using a log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazard regression model.Results: The 5-year distant metastasis-free survival(DMFS) rates for patients with GTVnd > 18.9 vs.≤ 18.9 mL were82.2% vs. 93.2%(P < 0.001), and for patients with EBV DNA copy number > 4000 vs. < 4000 copies/mL were 83.5% vs.93.9%(P < 0.001). After adjusting for GTVnd, EBV DNA copy number, and T category in the Cox regression model, both GTVnd > 18.9 mL and EBV DNA copy number > 4000 copies/mL were significantly associated with poor prognosis(both P < 0.05). According to combination of GTVnd and EBV DNA copy number, all patients were divided into low-,moderate-, and high-risk groups, with the 5-year DMFS rates of 96.1,87.4, and 73.8%, respectively(P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis confirmed the prognostic value of this model for distant metastatic risk stratification(hazard ratio [HR],4.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.34-7.59; P < 0.001).Conclusions: GTVnd and serum EBV DNA copy number are independent prognostic factors for predicting distant metastasis in NPC patients with N1 disease. The prognostic model incorporating GTVnd and EBV DNA copy number may improve metastatic risk stratification for this group of patients. | Ji‑Jin Yao Guan‑Qun Zhou Ya‑Qin Wang Si‑Yang Wang Wang‑Jian Zhang Ya‑Nan Jin Fan Zhang Li Li Li‑Zhi Liu Zhi‑Bin Cheng Jun Ma Zhen‑Yu Qi | 2017 | Chinese Journal of Cancer2017，36，12： | 9 |
| 3 | Application of preoperative artificial neural network based on blood biomarkers and clinicopathological parameters for predicting longterm survival of patients with gastric cancer显示文摘BACKGROUND Because of the powerful abilities of self-learning and handling complex biological information,artificial neural network(ANN)models have been widely applied to disease diagnosis,imaging analysis,and prognosis prediction.However,there has been no trained preoperative ANN(preope-ANN)model to preoperatively predict the prognosis of patients with gastric cancer(GC).AIM To establish a neural network model that can predict long-term survival of GC patients before surgery to evaluate the tumor condition before the operation.METHODS The clinicopathological data of 1608 GC patients treated from January 2011 to April 2015 at the Department of Gastric Surgery,Fujian Medical University Union Hospital were analyzed retrospectively.The patients were randomly divided into a training set(70%)for establishing a preope-ANN model and a testing set(30%).The prognostic evaluation ability of the preope-ANN model was compared with that of the American Joint Commission on Cancer(8th edition)clinical TNM(cTNM)and pathological TNM(pTNM)staging through the receiver operating characteristic curve,Akaike information criterion index,Harrell's C index,and likelihood ratio chi-square.RESULTS We used the variables that were statistically significant factors for the 3-year overall survival as input-layer variables to develop a preope-ANN in the training set.The survival curves within each score of the preope-ANN had good discrimination(P<0.05).Comparing the preope-ANN model,cTNM,and pTNM in both the training and testing sets,the preope-ANN model was superior to cTNM in predictive discrimination(C index),predictive homogeneity(likelihood ratio chi-square),and prediction accuracy(area under the curve).The prediction efficiency of the preope-ANN model is similar to that of pTNM.CONCLUSION The preope-ANN model can accurately predict the long-term survival of GC patients,and its predictive efficiency is not inferior to that of pTNM stage. | Si-Jin Que Qi-Yue Chen Qing-Zhong Zhi-Yu Liu Jia-Bin Wang Jian-Xian Lin Jun Lu Long-Long Cao Mi Lin Ru-Hong Tu Ze-Ning Huang Ju-Li Lin Hua-Long Zheng Ping Li Chao-Hui Zheng Chang-Ming Huang Jian-Wei Xie | 2019 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2019，25，43： | 4 |
| 4 | Establishment and verification of a surgical prognostic model for cervical spinal cord injury without radiological abnormality显示文摘Some studies have suggested that early surgical treatment can effectively improve the prognosis of cervical spinal cord injury without radiological abnormality, but no research has focused on the development of a prognostic model of cervical spinal cord injury without radiological abnormality. This retrospective analysis included 43 patients with cervical spinal cord injury without radiological abnormality. Seven potential factors were assessed: age, sex, external force strength causing damage, duration of disease, degree of cervical spinal stenosis, Japanese Orthopaedic Association score, and physiological cervical curvature. A model was established using multiple binary logistic regression analysis. The model was evaluated by concordant profiling and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The prognostic model was as follows: logit(P) =-25.4545 + 21.2576 VALUE + 1.2160SCORE-3.4224 TIME, where VALUE refers to the Pavlov ratio indicating the extent of cervical spinal stenosis, SCORE refers to the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score(0–17) after the operation, and TIME refers to the disease duration(from injury to operation). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for all patients was 0.8941(95% confidence interval, 0.7930–0.9952). Three factors assessed in the predictive model were associated with patient outcomes: a great extent of cervical stenosis, a poor preoperative neurological status, and a long disease duration. These three factors could worsen patient outcomes. Moreover, the disease prognosis was considered good when logit(P) ≥-2.5105. Overall, the model displayed a certain clinical value. This study was approved by the Biomedical Ethics Committee of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, China(approval number: 2018063) on May 8, 2018. | Jie Wang Shuai Guo Xuan Cai Jia-Wei Xu Hao-Peng Li | 2019 | Neural Regeneration Research2019，14，4： | 4 |
| 5 | Characteristics of alcoholic liver disease and predictive factors for mortality of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis显示文摘BACKGROUND:Alcoholic liver disease is one of the major chronic liver diseases worldwide.The aim of the study was to describe the clinical characteristics of alcoholic liver disease and to compare the predictive values of biochemical parameters,complications,Child-Turcotte-Pugh score,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score and discriminant function score for the mortality of in-hospital or 3-month after discharge of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis(AC).METHODS:A retrospective record review and statistical analysis were performed on 205 consecutive patients with the discharge diagnosis of alcoholic liver disease.Three models were used to predict the mortality of patients with AC.The number of variceal hemorrhage,infection,hepatic encephalopathy and hepatocellular carcinoma was analyzed as'numbers of complications'.Model 1 consisted of creatinine,white blood cell count,international normalized ratio and'numbers of complications'.Model 2 consisted of MELD score.Model 3included'numbers of complications'and MELD score.RESULTS:The risk of developing AC was significant for patients with alcohol consumption of higher than 80 g/d(OR=2.807,P<0.050)and drinking duration of longer than 10 years(OR=3.429,P<0.028).The area under curve for predicting inhospital mortality of models 1,2 and 3 was 0.950,0.886 and 0.911(all P<0.001),respectively.The area under curve for predicting the 3-month mortality of models 1,2 and 3 was 0.867,0.878 and0.893(all P<0.001),respectively.CONCLUSIONS:There is a dose-dependent relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of developing AC.MELD score has a better predictive value than Child-TurcottePugh or discriminant function score for patients with AC,and model 1 or 3 is better than model 2. | Yan-Di Xie Bo Feng Yan Gao Lai Wei | 2013 | Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International2013，12，6： | 2 |
| 6 | Validation of the six-and-twelve criteria among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and performance score 1 receiving transarterial chemoembolization显示文摘BACKGROUND Transarterial chemoembolization(TACE)is recommended for patients with intermediate hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)according to treatment guidelines.However,a large number of patients with advanced HCC also receive TACE in clinical practice,especially for those with liver-confined HCC and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score(ECOG)1.In view of previous studies,such patients have different prognoses from advanced HCC patients with macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic spread;therefore,patients with ECOG 1 alone might be classified into the intermediate stage and benefit from TACE treatment,but a study particularly focusing on such patients and exploring the effectiveness of TACE therapy is lacking.AIM To investigate treatment outcomes of TACE in HCC patients with ECOG 1 alone and propose a specific prognostic model.METHODS Patients from 24 Chinese tertiary hospitals were selected in this nationwide multicenter observational study from January 2010 to May 2016.Overall survival(OS)was estimated using Kaplan–Meier curves and compared by the log-rank test.Multivariate Cox regression was used to develop the potential prognostic models.The discriminatory ability of the models was compared and validated in various patient subgroups.The individual survival prediction for six-and-twelve(6&12)criteria,defined as the algebraic sum of tumor size(cm)and tumor number,was illustrated by contour plot of 3-year survival probability and nomogram.RESULTS A total of 792 eligible patients were included.During follow-up,median OS reached 18.9 mo[95%confidence interval(CI):16.9-21.0].Three independent multivariate analyses demonstrated that tumor size,tumor number,α-fetoprotein level,albumin–bilirubin grade and total bilirubin were prognostic factors of OS(P<0.05).The previously proposed 6&12 criteria was comparable or even better than currently proposed with the highest predictive ability.In addition,the 6&12 criteria was correlated with OS in various subgroups of patients.The patients were stratified into three strata with score≤6,>6 but≤12,and>12 with different median OS of 39.8 mo(95%CI:23.9-55.7),21.1 mo(95%CI:18.4-23.8)and 9.8 mo(95%CI:8.3-11.3),respectively(P<0.001).CONCLUSION TACE is effective for advanced HCC patients with ECOG 1 alone,and the 6&12 criteria may help with clinical decision-making. | Zhe-Xuan Wang Jing Li En-Xin Wang Dong-Dong Xia Wei Bai Qiu-He Wang Jie Yuan Xiao-Mei Li Jing Niu Zhan-Xin Yin Jie-Lai Xia Dai-Ming Fan Guo-Hong Han | 2020 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2020，26，15： | 2 |
| 7 | Jidong cognitive impairment cohort study: objectives, design, and baseline screening显示文摘The risk of dementia increases in patients with cognitive impairment.However,it is not clear what factors contribute to the onset of dementia in those with cognitive impairment.In this prospective cohort study,we will investigate the every-five-year incidence of cognitive impairment and prognostic factors for cognitive impairment.The Jidong cognitive impairment cohort was established from April 2012 to August 2015,during which we recruited 5854 healthy participants(55.1%male)older than 45 years(mean,57 years).Participants received a health examination in the Staff Hospital,Jidong Oilfield Branch,China National Petroleum Corporation.Baseline data and blood samples were collected.Cognitive impairment was evaluated using the Mini-Mental State Examination,and was defined as a Mini-Mental State Examination score of less than 24.Dementia was assessed using the criteria of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders(Fourth edition),the International Working Group criteria,and the Mini-Mental State Examination score.The follow-up will continue until December 2024,during which a prognostic model will be constructed.The primary outcome is the presence/absence of dementia and the secondary outcome is quality of life.Baseline screening results showed the following:(1)Cognitive impairment was apparent in 320 participants(5.5%).These participants will be excluded from the Jidong cohort study,and the remaining participants will be followed up.(2)Of the 320 participants with cognitive impairment,there was a significantly higher prevalence of illiteracy than other education levels(35.9%,P<0.05).Age,arterial hypertension,alcohol consumption,and passive smoking differed significantly between the cognitive impairment and healthy groups(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression models showed that age(odds ratio[OR]=1.059,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.044-1.074)and arterial hypertension(OR=1.665,95%CI:1.143-2.427)were risk factors for mild cognitive impairment.With the increase of educational level(illiteracy,primary school,junior high school,high school,university,and above),cognitive impairment gradually decreased(OR<1,P<0.05).(3)This cohort study has initially screened for several risk factors for cognitive impairment at baseline,and subsequent prospective data will further describe,validate,and evaluate the effects of these risk factors on cognitive impairment and dementia.These results can provide clinical evidence for the early prevention of cognitive impairment and dementia.The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Kailuan General Hospital of Tangshan City and the Medical Ethics Committee,Staff Hospital,Jidong Oilfield Branch,China National Petroleum Corporation on July 12,2013(approval No.2013 YILUNZI 1). | Dai-Yu Song Xian-Wei Wang Sa Wang Si-Qi Ge Guo-Yong Ding Xue-Yu Chen Yan-Ru Chen Hua-Min Liu Xiao-Mei Xie Wei-Jia Xing Dong Li Yong Zhou | 2020 | Neural Regeneration Research2020，15，6： | 1 |
| 8 | Prognostic model of survival outcomes in non-small cell lung cancer patients initiated on afatinib: pooled analysis of clinical trial data显示文摘Objective: Several predictors of survival have been identified in EGFR-positive non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) patients treated with first generation EGFR inhibitors. Prognostic models of survival outcomes with afatinib have not been evaluated.Methods: A prognostic tool for overall survival(OS)/progression free survival(PFS) based on pre-treatment clinicopathological factors was developed for EGFR-positive advanced NSCLC patients treated with first-line afatinib using penalised regression of individual-participant data from LUX-Lung 3 and 6(n = 468). Favourable, intermediate and poor risk groups were identified and externally validated using LUX-Lung 1(n = 390) and LUX-Lung 2(n = 129) trials that initiated afatinib following previous chemotherapy or EGFR inhibitor treatment.Results: Discriminative performance was good in the development and validation cohorts. For patients treated with first-line afatinib, the median OS for the favourable, intermediate and poor risk groups were > 47.7, 29.3 and 16.4 months, respectively, and the median PFS were 17.3, 13.2 and 8.3 months, respectively. The improvement in median OS with afatinib use compared to chemotherapy was > 12.4 months for the favourable risk group, whereas no OS benefit was apparent for the poor risk group. The improvement in median PFS with afatinib use compared to chemotherapy was 10.2 months for the favourable risk group and 3.2 months for the poor risk group.Conclusions: A prognostic tool was developed and validated to identify favourable, intermediate and poor risk groups for OS/PFS in EGFR-positive advanced NSCLC patients treated with afatinib. The prognostic groups can inform the likely absolute OS/PFS benefit expected from afatinib compared to chemotherapy in first-line treatment. | Ashley M. Hopkins Adel Shahnam Sasha Zhang Chris S. Karapetis Andrew Rowland Michael J. Sorich | 2019 | Cancer Biology & Medicine2019，16，2： | 0 |
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