Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Nio events

查看全文 作　　者：ZHANG [1]Jing;DUAN [2]WanSuo;ZHI [1]XieFei

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;[2]State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》索引2015年第58卷第5期,共12页

基　　金：sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955200);the National Public Benefit(Meteorology)Research Foundation of China(Grant No.GYHY201306018);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41230420,41176013);Zhang Jing was supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD);the Jiangsu Innovation Cultivation Project for Graduate Student(Grant No.CXZZ13_0502) 摘　　要：Most ocean-atmosphere coupled models have difficulty in predicting the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) when starting from the boreal spring season. However, the cause of this spring predictability barrier(SPB) phenomenon remains elusive. We investigated the spatial characteristics of optimal initial errors that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events by using the monthly mean data of the pre-industrial(PI) control runs from several models in CMIP5 experiments. The results indicated that the SPB-related optimal initial errors often present an SST pattern with positive errors in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, and a subsurface temperature pattern with positive errors in the upper layers of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and negative errors in the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific. The SPB-related optimal initial errors exhibit a typical La Ni-a-like evolving mode, ultimately causing a large but negative prediction error of the Nio-3.4 SST anomalies for El Nio events. The negative prediction errors were found to originate from the lower layers of the western equatorial Pacific and then grow to be large in the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is therefore reasonable to suggest that the El Nio predictions may be most sensitive to the initial errors of temperature in the subsurface layers of the western equatorial Pacific and the Nio-3.4 region, thus possibly representing sensitive areas for adaptive observation. That is, if additional observations were to be preferentially deployed in these two regions, it might be possible to avoid large prediction errors for El Nio and generate a better forecast than one based on additional observations targeted elsewhere. Moreover, we also confirmed that the SPB-related optimal initial errors bear a strong resemblance to the optimal precursory disturbance for El Nio and La Nia events. This indicated that improvement of the observation network by additional observations in the identified sensitive areas would also be helpful in detecting the signals provided by the precursory disturbance, which may greatly improve the ENSO prediction skill. 关键词：厄尔尼诺事件预测误差可预报性赤道东太平洋赤道西太平洋 ENSO预测输出地下温度

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Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Nio events

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