The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis

查看全文 作　　者：SHEN Ji [1,2]Chuan;LUO [2]Lei;LI [3]Li;JING Qin [2]Long;OU Chun [3]Quan;YANG Zhi [2]Cong;CHEN Xiao [1]Guang

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes,Department of Pathogen Biology,School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine,Southern Medical University;[2]Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention;[3]State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research,Department of Biostatistics,Guangdong Provinical Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research,School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine,Southern Medical University

出　　处：《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》索引2015年第28卷第5期,共9页

基　　金：supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health,USA(R01 AI083202,D43 TW009527);National Nature Science Foundation of China(81273139);the Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality(2013-2015-07);Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province,China(2013B021800041) 摘　　要：Objective To explore the associations between the monthly number of dengue fever(DF) cases and possible risk factors in Guangzhou, a subtropical city of China. Methods The monthly number of DF cases, Breteau Index(BI), and meteorological measures during 2006-2014 recorded in Guangzhou, China, were assessed. A negative binomial regression model was used to evaluate the relationships between BI, meteorological factors, and the monthly number of DF cases. Results A total of 39,697 DF cases were detected in Guangzhou during the study period. DF incidence presented an obvious seasonal pattern, with most cases occurring from June to November. The current month's BI, average temperature(Tave), previous month's minimum temperature(Tmin), and Tave were positively associated with DF incidence. A threshold of 18.25 °C was found in the relationship between the current month's Tmin and DF incidence. Conclusion Mosquito density, Tave, and Tmin play a critical role in DF transmission in Guangzhou. These findings could be useful in the development of a DF early warning system and assist in effective control and prevention strategies in the DF epidemic. 关键词：气象因素中国城市广州市时间序列分析登革热疫情密度蚊虫

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The Impacts of Mosquito Density and Meteorological Factors on Dengue Fever Epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: a Time-series Analysis

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