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An Examination of the Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis in High-Resolution Coupled Models with Dynamically Downscaled Coupled Data Assimilation Initialization

查看全文 作　　者：Mingkui [1,2]LI;Shaoqing [1,2,3,4]ZHANG;Lixin [1,2]WU;Xiaopei [1,2]LIN;Ping [3,5]CHANG;Gohkan [3,6]DANABASOGLU;Zhiqiang [2]WEI;Xiaolin [1,2]YU;Huiqin [2]HU;Xiaohui [1,2]MA;Weiwei [1]MA;Haoran [1]ZHAO;Dongning [2]JIA;Xin [7]LIU;Kai [1]MAO;Youwei [4]MA;Yingjing [4]JIANG;Xue [1]WANG;Guangliang [7]LIU;Yuhu [2]CHEN 高影响力作者 机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,MOE,Institute for Advanced Ocean Study,College of Ocean and Atmosphere,Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(DOMES),Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;[2]Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(QNLM),Qingdao 266237,China;[3]International Laboratory for High-Resolution Earth System Model and Prediction(iHESP),Qingdao 266237,China;[4]College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;[5]Department of Oceanography,Texas A&M University,College Station,Texas 77843,USA;[6]National Center for Atmospheric Research,Boulder,Colorado 80301,USA;[7]National Supercomputing Jinan Center,Jinan 250101,China高影响力机构 出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》索引2020年第37卷第9期,共12页高影响力期刊 基　　金：supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC1404100 and 2017YFC1404104);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775100 and 41830964)。 摘　　要：Predicting tropical cyclone(TC)genesis is of great societal importance but scientifically challenging.It requires fineresolution coupled models that properly represent air−sea interactions in the atmospheric responses to local warm sea surface temperatures and feedbacks,with aid from coherent coupled initialization.This study uses three sets of highresolution regional coupled models(RCMs)covering the Asia−Pacific(AP)region initialized with local observations and dynamically downscaled coupled data assimilation to evaluate the predictability of TC genesis in the West Pacific.The APRCMs consist of three sets of high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting−Regional Ocean Model System(WRF-ROMS):27-km WRF with 9-km ROMS,and 9-km WRF with 3-km ROMS.In this study,a 9-km WRF with 9-km ROMS coupled model system is also used in a case test for the predictability of TC genesis.Since the local sea surface temperatures and wind shear conditions that favor TC formation are better resolved,the enhanced-resolution coupled model tends to improve the predictability of TC genesis,which could be further improved by improving planetary boundary layer physics,thus resolving better air−sea and air−land interactions. 关 键 词：high-resolution coupled model tropical cyclone formation PREDICTABILITY TC genesis coupled data assimilation
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