CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

查看全文 作　　者：Xiaoling [1,2]YANG;Botao [1,2]ZHOU;Ying [3]XU;Zhenyu [3]HAN

机构地区：[1]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;[2]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;[3]National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》索引2021年第38卷第5期,共14页

基　　金：the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606301);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42025502,41991285,42088101). 摘　　要：This article evaluates the performance of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models in simulating temperature and precipitation over China through comparisons with gridded observation data for the period of 1995–2014,with a focus on spatial patterns and interannual variability.The evaluations show that the CMIP6 models perform well in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation,with better performance for temperature than for precipitation.Their interannual variability can also be reasonably captured by most models,however,poor performance is noted regarding the interannual variability of winter precipitation.Based on the comprehensive performance for the above two factors,the“highest-ranked”models are selected as an ensemble(BMME).The BMME outperforms the ensemble of all models(AMME)in simulating annual and winter temperature and precipitation,particularly for those subregions with complex terrain but it shows little improvement for summer temperature and precipitation.The AMME and BMME projections indicate annual increases for both temperature and precipitation across China by the end of the 21st century,with larger increases under the scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5/Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5(SSP585)than under scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2/Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5(SSP245).The greatest increases of annual temperature are projected for higher latitudes and higher elevations and the largest percentage-based increases in annual precipitation are projected to occur in northern and western China,especially under SSP585.However,the BMME,which generally performs better in these regions,projects lower changes in annual temperature and larger variations in annual precipitation when compared to the AMME projections. 关键词：CMIP6 evaluation and projection TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION ENSEMBLE

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CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Temperature and Precipitation over China

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