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| 1 | ANNUAL DISTRIBUTION FEATURES OF PRECIPITATION IN CHINA AND THEIR INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS显示文摘The hierarchy and definition of the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation-concentration period of annual precipitation have been proposed by using the so-called vectormethod of annual distribution of precipitation,so that the two relevant parameters can representthe annual distribution of total precipitation correctly and indeed accurately.The relationshipbetween the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and variations of the two parameters and theannual precipitation amount in China has been further investigated.Results demonstrate that theprecipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration period increase fromsoutheast to northwest gradually.Moreover there obviously exists a belt pattern:the largestvariability of the precipitation-concentration degree and the precipitation-concentration periodoccurs in the Yellow River Valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,corresponding to the significant zones in which flood and drought take place frequently.It is foundthat there exist high correlations between the precipitation-concentration degree and precipitation-concentration period and the annual precipitation amount in Northeast China,North China,themiddle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Furthermore,8-year and 22-year periodic oscillations in the precipitation-concentration degreeand 6-year and 12-year cycles in the precipitation-concentration period are identified by use of theirMorlet wavelet analysis. | 张录军 钱永甫 | 2003 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2003，17，2： | 112 |
| 2 | THE EAST ASIA/PACIFIC PATTERN TELECONNECTION OF SUMMER CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE ANOMALY IN EAST ASIA显示文摘In this paper,many observations show that the thermal states including the SST,the convective activities in the west-ern Pacific warm pool largely influence the interannual and intraseasonal variations of summer circulation and the cli-mate anomalies in East Asia.Moreover,it is pointed out that there is a teleconnection pattern of summer circulationanomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,the so-called East Asia/Pacific pattern.The cause of the teleconnection pattern is studied by using the theory of quasi-stationary planetary wave propaga-tion,and it may be due to the propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves forced by heat source around thePhilippines.Moreover,this pattern is well simulated by using a quasi-geostrophic,linear,spherical model and theIAP-GCM,respectively. | 黄荣辉 | 1992 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1992，6，1： | 58 |
| 3 | IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROPPING SYSTEM AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR AGRICULTURE IN CHINA显示文摘Based on the analyses on amplitudes of historical variation of temperature and precipitation inthe past 500 years and latest 100 years,according to the regional climate change scenarios forChina estimated by composite GCM,the potential impacts of climate change on cropping systemsin China in future are simulated and assessed using the cropping system model developmentspecially for the Chinese cropping patterns.It is shown that under the projected future climatechange by 2050 the most parts of the present double cropping area would be replaced by thedifferent triple cropping patterns while the current double cropping area would shift towards thecentral part of the present single cropping area.More explicitly,the northern boundary of triplecropping area would shift from its current border at the Changjing River to the Huanghe River,ashift of more than 5 degrees of latitude.And the shift of multiple cropping areas leads to asignificant decrease of single cropping area.Furthermore,considering the changes mentioned above in combination with the likely negativebalance of precipitation and evapotranspiration and,therefore,increase of moisture stress(i.e.less water availability),as well as the possible increase of heat stress disaster and decrease of LGS(length of growing season),the potential implication of climate change for agriculture in China arealso analyzed roughly in this paper.As a result,however,it is still very difficult to reach a specific conclusion that the futureclimate change will he favorable or unfavorable to farm in China because of the complicated Chinesefarming patterns,the complex-various social and economic environment of agriculturaldevelopment and,especially,a great scientific uncertainties in the investigation/prediction ofclimate change. | 王馥棠 | 1997 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1997，11，4： | 37 |
| 4 | A Comparison of Three Kinds of Multimodel Ensemble Forecast Techniques Based on the TIGGE Data显示文摘Based on the ensemble mean outputs of the ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts),JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency),NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction),and UKMO (United Kingdom Met Office) in THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) datasets,for the Northern Hemisphere (10°-87.5°N,0°-360°) from 1 June 2007 to 31 August 2007,this study carried out multimodel ensemble forecasts of surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height,temperature and winds up to 168 h by using the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM),the multiple linear regression based superensemble (LRSUP),and the neural network based superensemble (NNSUP) techniques for the forecast period from 8 to 31 August 2007.The forecast skills are verified by using the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs).Comparative analysis of forecast results by using the BREM,LRSUP,and NNSUP shows that the multimodel ensemble forecasts have higher skills than the best single model for the forecast lead time of 24-168 h.A roughly 16% improvement in RMSE of the 500-hPa geopotential height is possible for the superensemble techniques (LRSUP and NNSUP) over the best single model for the 24-120-h forecasts,while it is only 8% for BREM.The NNSUP is more skillful than the LRSUP and BREM for the 24-120-h forecasts.But for 144-168-h forecasts,BREM,LRSUP,and NNSUP forecast errors are approximately equal.In addition,it appears that the BREM forecasting without the UKMO model is more skillful than that including the UKMO model,while the LRSUP forecasting in both cases performs approximately the same.A running training period is used for BREM and LRSUP ensemble forecast techniques.It is found that BREM and LRSUP,at each grid point,have different optimal lengths of the training period.In general,the optimal training period for BREM is less than 30 days in most areas,while for LRSUP it is about 45 days. | 智协飞 祁海霞 白永清 林春泽 | 2012 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2012，26，1： | 38 |
| 5 | The Baseline Evaluation of LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model (LICOM) Version 2显示文摘The baseline performance of the latest version (version 2) of an intermediate resolution, stand-alone climate oceanic general circulation model, called LASG/IAP (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM), has been evaluated against the observation by using the main metrics from Griffies et al. in 2009. In general, the errors of LICOM2 in the water properties and in the circulation are comparable with the models of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs). Some common biases are still evident in the present version, such as the cold bias in the eastern Pacific cold tongue, the warm biases off the east coast of the basins, the weak poleward heat transport in the Atlantic, and the relatively large biases in the Arctic Ocean. A unique systematic bias occurs in LICOM2 over the Southern Ocean, compared with CORE models. It seems that this bias may be related to the sea ice process around the Antarctic continent. | 刘海龙 林鹏飞 俞永强 张学洪 | 2012 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2012，26，3： | 37 |
| 6 | Effect of Atmospheric Haze on the Deterioration of Visibility over the Pearl River Delta显示文摘The studies on the effect of atmospheric aerosol on climate and environment are hot issues in the current circle of international science and technology. In recent years the pollution of aerosol is getting worse and worse over the Pearl River Delta. The clouds of aerosol occur all year round, with heavy pollution area located at the western side at the mouth of Pearl River. The haze weather mainly occurs from October to April next year, resulting in visibility deterioration. From the beginning of 1980s, visibility dramatically deteriorated, obviously increasing haze weather, in which there are three big fluctuations, showing the periods of pollutions of dust, sulphate and dust, fine particle from photochemical process and sulphate and dust accompanying with the development of economy respectively. The long-term tendency of visibility caused by fog and light fog does not show a tendency due to human activities or economic development, which mainly shows the interannual and interdecadal variation of climate. The deterioration of visibility has close relation to the fine particles over Pearl River Delta, with half of PM10 overpass the limited value set by national second graded standard (150μg m-3), meanwhile, all values of PM2.5 overpass the day-mean limited value of American national standard (65μg m-3), especially from October to January next year, monthly mean values of PM2.5 almost reach two times of standard value, indicating the fine particle concentration is very high. The ratio of PM2.5 to PM10 is also very high, reaching 58%-77%, higher especially in dry season than in rainy season. Thus it is the fine particle pollution in aerosol pollution over the Pearl River Delta. Compared with the data of 15 years ago, the ratio of fine particle to aerosol has obviously increased. | 吴兑 毕雪岩 邓雪娇 李菲 谭浩波 廖国莲 黄健 | 2007 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2007，21，2： | 31 |
| 7 | 348-YEAR PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTION FROM TREE-RINGS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE MIDDLE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS显示文摘Correlation census shows that the correlation between the tree-ring chronologies in the Urumqi River Basin and precipitation during July in the last year to February in the concurrent year is significant, and the best single correlation coefficient is 0.74, with significance level of 0. 0001.Using two residual chronologies collected from west Baiyanggou and Boerqingou, precipitation for 348 years can be reconstructed in the North Slope of middle Tianshan Mountains, its explained variance is 62%. According to much verification from independent precipitation data, historical climate records, glacier and other data, it shows that the reconstructed precipitation series of 348 years is reliable. Analysis of precipitation features indicates that there were three wet periods occurring during 1671 (?) -1692, 1716-1794 and 1825-1866 and three dry periods during 1693 - 1715, 1795- 1824 and 1867- 1969. Two wet periods, during 1716- 1794 and 1825 - 1866,correspond to the times of the second and the third glacial terminal moraine formation, which is in front of No. 1 glacier in Urumqi River source. According to computation, corresponding annual precipitation amounts are 59 mm and 30 mm more than now. The reconstructed precipitation series has a significant drying trend from 1716 to 1969, and has better representativeness to the precipitation of Urumqi and Changji Prefecture on the North Slope of Tianshan Mountains. | 袁玉江 李江风 张家宝 | 2001 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2001，15，1： | 27 |
| 8 | THE COOLING OF SICHUAN PROVINCE IN RECENT 40 YEARS AND ITS PROBABLE MECHANISMS显示文摘The analysis of temperature variation trends at 160 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 1992 showed thata relatively large area of China became warm in recent years,but there still existed an obvious cooling center in Sichuanbasin.We also analyzed the variation trends of some meteorological factors which could probably cause this cooling,and the results indicated that the global solar radiation,the insolation duration and the visual range decreased sharply inrecent years,but the cloud amount changed slightly in Sichuan basin.We also found that the decrease of surface solarradiation caused by the increase of the anthropogenic aerosols’ backscattering in the lower troposphere was a notablereason for the cooling of Sichuan basin in recent years.We also confirmed this conclusion by using of a one-dimensionalclimate model. | 李晓文 周秀骥 李维亮 陈隆勋 | 1995 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1995，9，1： | 28 |
| 9 | A NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISLAND-INDUCED CYCLONE AND ITS IMPACT ON TYPHOON STRUCTURE CHANGE AND MOTION显示文摘In this paper,the impact of the Taiwan Island topography on the structure change and motion ofTyphoon Dot(9017)during its crossing the Taiwan Island is studied with a modified version of aJMA operational regional model(Japan spectral model,JSM).A series of sensitivity experiments areconducted to detect the forming and developing mechanism of an island-induced cyclone.Results showthat lee side low pressure center plays a very important role in the formation of the induced-cyclonewhile a typhoon is approaching a large island with high mountains.The position and intensity of theinduced cyclone is sensitive to the height and location of island mountain,intensity of TC and under-lying surface topography distribution as well.A preliminary formation criterion of the island-inducedcyclone is obtained. | 孟智勇 永田雅 陈联寿 | 1996 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1996，10，4： | 24 |
| 10 | THE CHARACTERS OF ENERGY BUDGET ON THE GOBI AND DESERT SURFACE IN HEXI REGION显示文摘In the paper,the characters of surface energy budget on Huayin(Gobi)and the desert surface during the periodfrom 26 June to 31 August 1990 in the HEIFE have been analyzed,then have been compared with the observed resultsduring 4—19 September 1988 in the Pilot Observation Period of the HEIFE.The results show that the atmosphere is insuperadiabatic unstable state and there is a phenomenon of inverse humidity to form negative water vapour flux.Thesensible heat flux on the surface energy budget is in majority,but the latent heat flux may be neglected over the Gobi anddesert surface in the cloudless daytime in the summer. | 胡隐樵 杨选利 张强 左洪超 | 1992 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1992，6，1： | 23 |
| 11 | Seasonal Prediction of Summer Temperature over Northeast China Using a Year-to-Year Incremental Approach显示文摘We present a model for predicting summertime surface air temperature in Northeast China(NESSAT) using a year-to-year incremental approach.The predicted value for each year's increase or decrease of NESSAT is added to the observed value within a particular year to yield the net forecast NESSAT.The seasonal forecast model for the year-to-year increments of NESSAT is constructed based on data from 1975- 2007.Five predictors are used:an index for sea ice cover over the East Siberian Sea,an index for central Pacific tropical sea surface temperature,two high latitude circulation indices,as well as a North American pressure index.All predictors are available by no later than March,which allows for compilation of a seasonal forecast with a two-month lead time.The prediction model accurately captures the interannual variations of NESSAT during 1977-2007 with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.87(accounting for 76%of total variance) and a mean absolute error(MAE) of 0.3℃.A cross-validation test during 1977-2008 demonstrates that the model has good predictive skill,with MAE of 0.4℃and a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed NESSAT of 0.76. | 范可 王会军 | 2010 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2010，24，3： | 23 |
| 12 | THE PHYSICAL STRUCTURE OF THE WINTER FOG IN CHONGQING METROPOLITAN AREA AND ITS FORMATION PROCESS显示文摘Chongqing is a very famous foggy metropolitan in China.The Chongqing Fog Experiment Group carried out com-prehensive experiments on a large and extensive scale in the Chongqing urban area from 15 December 1989 to 15 Janua-ry 1990.And several items were further observed from 7 December 1990 to 7 January 1991.Based on the analysis of theobservational data,some important characteristics of the Chongqing winter fog and the boundary layer structure havebeen revealed.It is found that such factors as topography,mountain wind,rivers,the urban heat island and airpollution,all contribute to the formation of the Chongqing fog in addition to the radiation conditions. | 李子华 张利民 张庆鸿 | 1994 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1994，8，3： | 23 |
| 13 | CH_4 EMISSION FROM A CHINESE RICE PADDY FIELD显示文摘CH4 emission rates have been measured continuously for the early rice of 1988 and late rices of 1987and 1988 during entire growing seasons in a rice paddy field in Hangzhou,Zhejiang Province,China,byusing an automatic sampling and analyzing system.During most parts of the seasons CH4 emission ratesshowed strong diurnal variations.Bi-mode patterns with the highest value in the afternoon and a secondpeak at mid-night were generally found for the early rice,while the highest values were almost always foundin the night for the late rice.Bi-mode patterns with a second peak in the afternoon were also found duringthe reproductive phase of the late rice plants.These diurnal variations may be explained by the diurnalvariations of the soil temperature and the activity of rice plants.Strong seasonal variations with one peakin the tillering stage and two during the reproductive phase of rice plants were observed for all the threegrowing seasons.The seasonal variations may be explained by the activity of rice plants,availability oforganic substrates in the soil,and the activity of soil bacteria related to soil temperatures,Fertilizationdid not show significant effects on the total seasonal CH4 emissions but slightly changed the pattern ofthe seasonal variations of the CH4 emission rates.Averaged over the measuring periods and 8 spots,CH4emission rates of 7.8 mg m-2 h-1 for the early rice and 28.6 mg m-2 h-1 for the late rice were obtained.Based on these measured data,the total global emission of CH4 from rice paddies is estimated to be about 90Tg/yr ranging from 70 to 110,accounting for 20% of the total source of CH4. | 王明星 戴爱国 沈壬兴 HelmutSchitz HeinzRennenberg WolfgangSeiler 吴海宝 | 1990 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1990，4，3： | 21 |
| 14 | Distribution and Diurnal Variation of Warm-Season Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Relation to the MCSs in China显示文摘Short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)is a type of severe convective weather that often leads to substantial losses of property and life.We derive the spatiotemporal distribution and diurnal variation of SDHR over China during the warm season(April–September)from quality-controlled hourly raingauge data taken at 876stations for 19 yr(1991–2009),in comparison with the diurnal features of the mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)derived from satellite data.The results are as follows.1)Spatial distributions of the frequency of SDHR events with hourly rainfall greater than 10–40 mm are very similar to the distribution of heavy rainfall(daily rainfall 50 mm)over China's Mainland.2)SDHR occurs most frequently in South China such as southern Yunnan,Guizhou,and Jiangxi provinces,the Sichuan basin,and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,among others.Some SDHR events with hourly rainfall 50 mm also occur in northern China,e.g.,the western Xinjiang and central-eastern Inner Mongolia.The heaviest hourly rainfall is observed over the Hainan Island with the amount reaching over 180 mm.3)The frequency of the SDHR events is the highest in July,followed by August.Analysis of pentad variations in SDHR reveals that SDHR events are intermittent,with the fourth pentad of July the most active.The frequency of SDHR over China's Mainland increases slowly with the advent of the East Asian summer monsoon,but decreases rapidly with its withdrawal.4)The diurnal peak of the SDHR activity occurs in the later afternoon(1600–1700 Beijing Time(BT)),and the secondary peak occurs after midnight(0100–0200 BT)and in the early morning(0700–0800BT);whereas the diurnal minimum occurs around late morning till noon(1000–1300 BT).5)The diurnal variation of SDHR exhibits generally consistent features with that of the MCSs in China,but the active periods and propagation of SDHR and MCSs difer in diferent regions.The number and duration of local maxima in the diurnal cycles of SDHR and MCSs also vary by region,with single,double,and even multiple peaks in some cases.These variations may be associated with the diferences in large-scale atmospheric circulation,surface conditions,and land-sea distribution. | 陈炯 郑永光 张小玲 朱佩军 | 2013 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2013，27，6： | 21 |
| 15 | STUDY ON CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SURFACE TURBULENT HEAT EXCHANGE COEFFICIENTS AND SURFACE THERMAL SOURCES OVER THE QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU显示文摘Using monthly mean of surface turbulent heat exchange coefficients calculated based on datafrom four automatic weather stations(AWS)for thermal equilibrium observation in July 1993—September 1996 and of surface conventional measurements,an empirical expression is establishedfor such coefficients.With the expression,the heat exchange coefficients and the components ofsurface thermal source are computed in terms of 1961—1990 monthly mean conventional data from148 stations over the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau(QXP)and its adjoining areas,and the1961—1990 climatic means are examined.Evidence suggests that the empirical expression is capable of showing the variation of the heatexchange coefficient in a climatic context.The monthly variation of the coefficients averaged overthe QXP is in a range of 4×10-3-5×10-3.The wintertime values are bigger in the mountainsthan in the valleys and reversal in summer.Surface effective radiation and sensible heat are thedominant factors of surface total heat.In spring surface sensible heat is enhanced quickly,resulting in two innegligible regions of sensible heat,one in the west QXP and the other innorthern Tibet.with their maximums emerging in different months.In spring and summersensible heat and surface effective radiation are higher in the west than in the east.The effectiveradiation peaks for the east in October—December and the whole QXP and in June and October forthe west.The surface total heat of the plateau maximizes in May.minimizes in December andJanuary,and shows seasonal variation more remarkable in the SW compared to the eastern part.Inthe SW plateau the total heat is much more intense than the eastern counterpart in all the seasonsexcept winter.Under the effect of the sensible heat,the total heat on the SW plateau starts toconsiderably intensify in February,which leads to a predominant heating region in the west,withits center experiencing a noticeable westward migration early in summer and twice pronouncedweakening in July and after October.However,the weakening courses are owing to differentcauses.The total heat over the north of QXP is greatly strengthened in March.thus generatinganother significant thermal region in the plateau. | 赵平 陈隆勋 | 2000 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2000，14，1： | 19 |
| 16 | Relationship Between an Abrupt Drought-Flood Transition over Mid-Low Reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the Intraseasonal Oscillation over Mid-High Latitudes of East Asia显示文摘NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and Chinese daily gridded precipitation data are used to study the relationship between an aprupt drought-flood transition over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River in 2011 and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO; 30-60 days) in the mid-high latitude meridional circulation of the upper troposphere over East Asia. The abrupt transition from drought to flood occurs in early June. The first two recovered fields of the complex empirical orthogonal function show that northward-propagating westerlies from low latitudes converge with southward-propagating westerlies from high latitudes over the mid-low reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in mid-late May. The timing of this convergence corresponds to the flood period in early-mid June. The ISO index is significantly and positively correlated with rainfall over the MLRYR. During the dry phase (before the transition), the upper troposphere over the MLRYR is characterized by cyclonic flow, easterly winds, and convergence. The regional circulation is dominated by a wave train with a cyclone over east of Lake Baikal, an anticyclone over northern China, and a cyclone over the MLRYR. During the wet phase, the situation is reversed. The configuration of the wave train during the dry phase favors the southward propagation of westerly wind disturbances, while the configuration of the wave train during the wet phase favors the development and maintenance of a pumping effect and sustained ascending motions over the MLRYR. | 杨双艳 武炳义 张人禾 周顺武 | 2013 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2013，27，2： | 19 |
| 17 | Persistent Heavy Rainfall over South China During May–August:Subseasonal Anomalies of Circulation and Sea Surface Temperature显示文摘This study investigates the relationship between subseasonal variations of the circulation and sea surface temperature(SST)over the South China–East Asian coastal region(EACR)in association with the persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)events over South China during May–August through statistical analysis.Based on the intensity threshold and duration criterion of the daily rainfall,a total of 63 May–June(MJ)and 59July–August(JA)PHR events are selected over South China from 1979 to 2011.The lower-level circulation anomalies on subseasonal timescale exhibit an anomalous cyclone over South China and an anomalous anticyclone shaped like a tongue over the South China Sea(SCS)during the PHR events for MJ group.The anomalous cyclone over South China in MJ originates from low-value systems in the mid-high latitudes before the rainfall.The anomalous anticyclone over the SCS is due to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the southeastward propagation of the anomalous anticyclone from South China before the rainfall.For JA group,the lower-level anomalous circulation pattern is similar to that for MJ over the South China–EACR,but with di?erent features of propagation.The subseasonal anomalous anticyclone is also related to the westward stretch of the WPSH,while the anomalous cyclone is traced back to the weak anomalous cyclone over the Philippine Sea several days before the rainfall events.Positive SST anomaly(SSTA)is observed over the SCS and the Philippine Sea during the MJ PHR events on the subseasonal timescale.It is closely linked with the variation of local anomalous anticyclone.In contrast,negative SSTA occupies the South China coastal region for the JA PHR events,and it is driven by the anomalous cyclone which propagates northwestward from the Philippine Sea.The subseasonal positive(negative)SSTAs are generated via the local processes of above(below)-normal incident solar radiation and below(above)-normal latent heat fluxes.The possible role of the subseasonal SSTA in the local convective instability is also analyzed in this study. | 洪伟 任雪娟 | 2013 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2013，27，6： | 19 |
| 18 | Climate Change Projections for the 21st Century by the NCC/IAP T63 Model with SRES Scenarios显示文摘The projections of climate change in the globe and East Asia by the NCC/IAP T63 model with the SRESA2 and A1B scenarios have been investigated in this paper. The results pointed out a global warming of3.6°C/100 yr and 2.5°C/100 yr for A2 and A1B during the 21st century, respectively. The warming in highand middle latitudes will be more obvious than that in low latitudes, especially in the winter hemisphere.The warming of 5.1°C/100 yr for A2 and 3.6°C /100 yr for A1B over East Asia in the 21st century will bemuch higher than that in the globe. The global mean precipitation will increase by about 4.3%/100 yr forA2 and 3.4%/100 yr for A1B in the 21st century, respectively. The precipitation will increase in most partsof the low and high latitudes and decrease in some regions of the subtropical latitudes. The linear trendsof the annual mean precipitation anomalies over East Asia will be 9.8%/100 yr for A2 and 5.2%/100 yrfor A1B, respectively. The drier situations will occur over the northwestern and southeastern parts of EastAsia.The changes of the annual mean temperature and precipitation in the globe for the 21st century bythe NCC/IAP T63 model with SRES A2 and A1B scenarios are in agreement with a number of the modelprojections. | 徐影 赵宗慈 罗勇 高学杰 | 2005 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2005，19，4： | 19 |
| 19 | A Study of Surface Humidity Changes in China During the Recent 50 Years显示文摘This paper analyzes in detail the characteristics of surface humidity changes in China under the background of global warming in the recent 50 years by using the observation data compiled by the National Meteorological Information Center of China. The results reveal that (1) with the increase of temperature,surface saturation specific humidity (qs) shows basically an exponential growth, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The nationwide average moistening rate in winter is obviously less than the annual average rate and the summer rate. There are some regional differences in qstrends in different regions of China. For example, qsin central and eastern parts of China exhibits a reducing trend in summer, consistent with the weakening trend of temperature in these areas; (2) except parts of South China and Jianghuai Region in eastern China, unanimously increasing trends of annual and winter specific humidity (q) are found in most of China, especially in western China. In summer, except parts of Northeast China, Northwest China, and some areas over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the decreasing and drying trends are significant in most of China, which is not consistent with the global mean situation; (3) the surface relative humidity(RH) in most of China shows a reducing trend. One of the major reasons for the reduction of RH is that the increasing rates of q are smaller than those of qs. Nonetheless, upward trends of RH in central and eastern China mainly due to the cooling temperature and rising q in these regions are observed in summer, leading to more precipitation. From about 2003 or so, qshas remarkably increased while q has sharply decreased in most parts of China; therefore, RH has reduced to a great extent. This may be closely related to the persistent growth of drought areas in China in the recent 10 years. | 宋亚芳 柳艳菊 丁一汇 | 2012 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2012，26，5： | 19 |
| 20 | A Comparison of the Characteristics of Total and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activities in Hailstorms显示文摘The region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is covered by two different lightning detection networks: SAFIR (Systeme d'Alerte Fondre par Interferometrie Radioelecctrique) for total lightning, including IntraCloud (IC) flashes and Cloud-to-Ground (CG) flashes, and the ADTD (ADvanced TOA and Direction system; TOA denotes time of arrival) network of China for CG lightning. Fourteen isolated hail-bearing thunderstorms in this region were examined in this study, using the data of SAFIR and ADTD. The peak of lightning frequency, for both total lightning and CG lightning, was often observed in advance of the occurrence of hailstones on the ground, with a trend of a rapid increase of lightning frequency before the hail was reported. The average lead times of the two types of lightning jump before hail events were obtained (total lightning: 32.2 min; CG: 25.4 min) through the 2σ lightning jump algorithm. Additionally, in hailstorms with a high ratio of positive CG flashes, the diameter of hail was larger and the duration of hail was longer; when negative CG flashes dominated, the diameter of hail was relatively small. The comparison of the characteristics of total lightning and CG flashes in hailstorms in this study is expected to serve as a supplementary tool for hail forecasting. | 姚雯 张义军 孟青 王飞 吕伟涛 | 2013 | Acta meteorologica Sinica2013，27，2： | 19 |
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