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您的检索式：作者名="Christopher Monckton"
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| 1 | 模拟结果为什么比实际更暖:简化气候模型结果(英文)显示文摘一个 irreducibly 简单的气候敏感模型被设计授权甚至非专家研究多少的问题全球温暖我们可以引起。在 1990,气候变化(IPCC ) 上的 Intergovernmental 面板的第一份评价报告表示了近期的全球温暖将象随后的观察一样快发生两次的实质的信心。给定的升起的公司 < 潜水艇 class= “ a-plus-plus ” > 2 集中,很少模型没预言自从 2001,温暖。在期末考试前和第五份评价报告的出版草稿之间, IPCC 实质地切了它的近期的温暖设计,用专家评价代替模型近期的预言。然而,它的远程的预言仍然保持未改变。模型从 1.9 ~ 1.5 显示反馈和的那 IPCC 减小 ? W ? m < 啜 class= “ a-plus-plus ” > 2 ?K 1 从 3.2 ~ 2.2 要求减小 ? 在它的中央气候敏感估计的 K;自从反馈是可能的网否定,更好的估计是 1.0 ? K;在管道有不没有实现的全球温暖;那全球温暖这个世纪将是 < 1 ? K;并且所有可重获的石块的那燃烧造成愿望原因 < 2.2 ? K 全球温暖到平衡。解决在 IPCC 在它的第四和第五个评价采用的方法论之间的差异报导那在现在的论文被加亮是重要的。一旦那些差异被考虑,在下一个世纪的人为的全球温暖的影响,并且因此远及平衡弄平许多几千年,可以是仅仅三分之一个到 IPCC 当前的设计的一个一半。 | Christopher Monckton Willie W.-H.Soon David R.Legates William M.Briggs | 2015 | Science Bulletin2015，60，1： | 1 |
| 2 | Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model显示文摘Richardson et al.(Sci Bull, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z) suggest that the irreducibly simple climate model described in Monckton of Brenchley et al.(Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11434-014-0699-2) was not validated against observations, relying instead on synthetic test data based on underestimated global warming, illogical parameter choice and near-instantaneous response at odds with ocean warming and other observations. However, the simple model, informed by its authors' choice of parameters, usually hindcasts observed temperature change more closely than the general-circulation models, and finds high climate sensitivity implausible. With IPCC's choice of parameters, the model is further validated in that it duly replicates IPCC's sensitivity interval. Also, fast climate system response is consistent with near-zero or net-negative temperature feedback.Given the large uncertainties in the initial conditions and evolutionary processes determinative of climate sensitivity,subject to obvious caveats a simple sensitivity-focusedmodel need not, and the present model does not, exhibit significantly less predictive skill than the general-circulation models. | Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Willie W.-H. Soon David R. Legates William M. Briggs | 2015 | Science Bulletin2015，60，15： | 0 |
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