| 3 | A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 1:Dynamical model guidance显示文摘This review summarizes the rapporteur report on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change from the operational perspective,as presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC-10)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.The accuracy of TC intensity forecasts issued by operational forecast centers depends on three aspects:real-time observations,TC dynamical model forecast guidance,and techniques and methods used by forecasters.The rapporteur report covers the progress made over the past four years(2018–2021)in all three aspects.This review focuses on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.The companion paper(Part II)summarizes the advance from operational centers.The dynamical model forecast guidance continues to be the main factor leading to the improvement of operational TC intensity forecasts.Here,we describe recent advances and developments of major operational regional dynamical TC models and their intensity forecast performance,including HWRF,HMON,COAMPS-TC,Met Office Regional Model,CMA-TYM,and newly developed HAFS.The performance of global dynamical models,including NOAA's GFS,Met Office Global Model(MOGM),JMA's GSM,and IFS(ECMWF),has also been improved in recent years due to their increased horizontal and vertical resolution as well as improved data assimilation systems.Recent challenging cases of rapid intensification are presented and discussed. | Zhan Zhang Weiguo Wang James D.Doyle Jonathan Moskaitis William A.Komaromi Julian Heming Linus Magnusson John P.Cangialosi Levi Cowan Michael Brennan Suhong Ma Ananda Kumar Das Hosomi Takuya Peter Clegg Thomas Birchard John A.Knaff John Kaplan Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma Ikegami Masaaki Liguang Wu Eric Blake | 2023 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2023，12，1： | 0 |
| 4 | A review of recent advances(2018–2021)on tropical cyclone intensity change from operational perspectives,part 2:Forecasts by operational centers显示文摘This paper summarizes the progress and activities of tropical cyclone(TC)operational forecast centers during the last four years(2018–2021).It is part II of the review on TC intensity change from the operational perspective in the rapporteur report presented to the 10th International Workshop on TCs(IWTC)held in Bali,Indonesia,from Dec.5–9,2022.Part I of the review has focused on the progress of dynamical model forecast guidance.This part discusses the performance of TC intensity and rapid intensification forecasts from several operational centers.It is shown that the TC intensity forecast errors have continued to decrease since the 9th IWTC held in 2018.In particular,the improvement of rapid intensification forecasts has accelerated,compared with years before 2018.Consensus models,operational procedures,tools and techniques,as well as recent challenging cases from 2018 to 2021 identified by operational forecast centers are described.Research needs and recommendations are also discussed.©2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration.Publishing services by Elsevier B.V.on behalf of KeAi Communication Co.Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). | Weiguo Wang Zhan Zhang John P.Cangialosi Michael Brennan Levi Cowan Peter Clegg Hosomi Takuya Ikegami Masaaki Ananda Kumar Das Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Monica Sharma John A.Knaff John Kaplan Thomas Birchard James D.Doyle Julian Heming Jonathan Moskaitis Suhong Ma Charles Sampson Liguang Wu Eric Blake | 2023 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2023，12，1： | 0 |
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