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		题名	作者	年代	出处	被引量
	1	Prediction of permafrost distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the next 50 and 100 years显示文摘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 reported that the Earth air temperature would rise by 1.4-5.8℃ and 2.5℃ on average by the year 2100. China re-gional climate model results also showed that the air temperature on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) would increase by 2.2-2.6℃ in the next 50 years. A numerical permafrost model was developed to predict the changes of permafrost distribution on the QTP over the next 50 and 100 years under the two climatic warming scenarios, i.e. 0.02℃/a, the lower value of IPCC’s estima-tion, and 0.052℃/a, the higher value predicted by Qin et al. Simulation results show that ( i ) in the case of 0.02℃/a air-temperature rise, permafrost area on the QTP will shrink about 8.8% in the next 50 years, and high temperature permafrost with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) higher than ?0.11℃ may turn into seasonal frozen soils. In the next 100 years, perma-frost with MAGT higher than ?0.5℃ will disappear and the permafrost area will shrink up to 13.4%. (ii) In the case of 0.052℃/a air-temperature rise, permafrost area on the QTP will reduce about 13.5% after 50 years. More remarkable degradation will take place after 100 years, and permafrost area will reduce about 46%. Permafrost with MAGT higher than ?2℃ will turn into seasonal frozen soils and even unfrozen soils.	NAN Zhuotong LI Shuxun CHENG Guodong	2005	Science China Earth Sciences2005，48，6：	40

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