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| 1 | Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models显示文摘Sea level rise(SLR) is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet(GrIS) will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS(SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) to estimate the GrIS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0–16(0–27) cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) 4.5(RCP 8.5) scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7–22(7–33) cm with 2×basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm(10 cm and 13 cm with 2×basal sliding) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs. | YAN Qing WANG Huijun Ola M.JOHANNESSEN ZHANG Zhongshi | 2014 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2014，31，1： | 5 |
| 2 | Accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet as Represented in Reanalysis Data显示文摘Annual precipitation,evaporation,and calculated accumulation from reanalysis model outputs have been investigated for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS),based on the common period of 1989-2001.The ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data showed better agreement with observations than do NCEP-1 and NCEP-2 reanalyses.Further,ERA-interim showed the closest spatial distribution of accumulation to the observation.Concerning temporal variations,ERA-interim showed the best correlation with precipitation observations at five synoptic stations,and the best correlation with in situ measurements of accumulation at nine ice core sites.The mean annual precipitation averaged over the whole GrIS from ERA-interim (363 mm yr 1) and mean annual accumulation (319 mm yr 1) are very close to the observations.The validation of accumulation calculated from reanalysis data against ice-core measurements suggests that further improvements to reanalysis models are needed. | 陈琳玲 Ola M.JOHANNESSEN 王会军 Atsumu OHMURA | 2011 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2011，28，5： | 4 |
| 3 | Population increase impacts the climate,using the sensitive Arctic as an example显示文摘The global population during the last 100 years has increased from 2 to 7.7 billion,causing an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.In order to see how population increase is directly related to physical variables of the climate,this Perspective article places observations and scenarios of climate change into context and puts forth a statistical modeling study on how the sensitive Arctic climate responds to the increasing population.The relationships between population,Arctic sea-ice extent(SIE),and surface air temperature(SAT)are very strong,with the increasing population explaining 96%of the decreasing SIE and about 80%of the increasing SAT in the Arctic.Our projection for the SIE using the population as a“proxy predictor”for a projected population of 10 billion people on the Earth in 2100,yields a SIE of 9.30 and 8.21 million km 2 for a linear and squared relationship,respectively,indicating no“tipping point”for the annual ice extent in this century.This adds another dimension to climate understanding for the public at large using population as a proxy variable,instead of the more abstract CO_(2)parameter.This also indicates that it is important to attempt to limit the ongoing increase in population,which is the main cause of the greenhouse gas emissions,in addition to reducing per capita emissions by an exponential increase in implementing renewable energy,a formidable challenge in this century. | Ola M.Johannessen Elena V.Shalina | 2022 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2022，15，2： | 0 |
| 4 | Commemoration of the 15th Anniversary of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters显示文摘First published in late 2008 and currently in Volume 15(2022), Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters(AOSL) is now 15 years old. Looking back on the journey, hardships and happiness, difficulties and hope coexist.AOSL is an international journal for providing a rapid communication channel between academic communities concerned with the interdisciplinary research areas of atmospheric science, oceanography. | Huijun Wang Ola M.Johannessen | 2022 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2022，15，1： | 0 |
| 5 | Will the summer sea ice in the Arctic reach a tipping point?显示文摘The Arctic sea-ice cover has decreased in extent,area,and thickness over the last six decades.Most global climate models project that the summer sea-ice extent(SIE)will decline to less than 1 million(mill.)km^(2) in this century,ranging from 2030 to the end of the century,indicating large uncertainty.However,some models,using the same emission scenarios as required by the Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature below 2°C,indicate that the SIE could be about 2 mill.km^(2) in 2100 but with a large uncertainty of±1.5 mill.km^(2).Here,the authors take another approach by exploring the direct relationship between the SIE and atmospheric CO_(2) concentration for the summer-fall months.The authors correlate the SIE and In(CO_(2)/CO_(2)r)during the period 1979-2022,where CO_(2)r is the reference value in 1979.Using these transient regression equations with an R2 between 0.78 and 0.87,the authors calculate the value that the CO_(2) concentration needs to reach for zero SIE.The results are that,for July,the CO_(2) concentration needs to reach 691±16.5 ppm,for August 604±16.5 ppm,for September 563±17.5 ppm,and for October 620±21 ppm.These values of CO_(2)for an ice-free Arctic are much higher than the targets of the Paris Agreement,which are 450 ppm in 2060 and 425 ppm in 2100,under the IPCC SSP1-2.6 scenario.If these targets can be reached or even almost reached,the 'no tipping point'hypothesis for the summer SIE may be valid. | Ola M.Johannessen Elena V.Shalina | 2023 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2023，16，3： | 0 |
| 6 | Preface显示文摘First published in late 2008 and currently in Volume 11 (2018),Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) is unique in providing a rapid communication channel between academic communities concerned with the interdisciplinary research areas of atmospheric science and physical oceanography.This approach allows the journal to cover such critical issues as climate change,the cryosphere,water resources,wind energy,drought and flood,and smog,amongst many others.AOSL is co-sponsored by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) and the Chinese Meteorological Society (CMS),and it is now jointly published by the Taylor & Francis Group (since 2016) and Science Press. | Hui-Jun Wang Ola M.Johannessen | 2018 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2018，11，2： | 0 |
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