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| 1 | Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration显示文摘This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting. | Xiaoqin LU Hui YU Ming YING Bingke ZHAO Shuai ZHANG Limin LIN Lina BAI Rijin WAN | 2021 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2021，38，4： | 96 |
| 2 | PERFORMANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2016显示文摘The forecasts of tropical cyclones(TC) in 2016 from 5 official guidances, 5 global models, 3 regional models and 6 ensemble systems were assessed to study the current capabilities of track and intensity forecasts for the western North Pacific. In 2016, the position errors for each official agency were under 85, 150 and 250 km at the lead times of 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively,indicating the performance of track forecasts was a little worse than that in 2015. For each lead time, decreases were seen for each quantile value of the global models from 2010 to 2015; however, this progress in forecasts was stagnated or was reversed in 2016, especially for long lead times.A new error tracking tool,called a 'Track Error Rose',was used to visualize the spatial distributions of the track forecast error relative to the observed TC center. The results show that as lead time increases, the moving speed of most global model TC forecasts becomes slower than those of the observations, and the largest track error often appears to the south of the observation position. In 2016, JMA-GSM, NCEP-GFS, STI-GRAPES and UKMO-MetUM made considerable progress in their intensity forecasts at lead times of 24 and 48 h, and the EPS intensity forecasts made significant progress compared to those of 2015. | GUOMIN CHEN XIPING ZHANG PEIYAN CHEN HUI YU RIJIN WAN | 2017 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2017，6，1： | 4 |
| 3 | A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TECHNIQUE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY BASED ON MODEL OUTPUT CALIBRATION显示文摘We analyzed the errors associated with forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity from 2010-2012 in the western North Pacifi c region made by seven operational numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the forecast error is signifi cantly related to the initial error as well as the initial TC intensity, size, and translation speed. Other factors highly related to the forecast error include the environmental sea surface pressure, vertical wind shear and maximum potential intensity. We used stepwise regression to set up model forecast error estimation equations, which were used to calibrate the model output. Independent experiments showed that the calibrated model forecasts have signifi cant skill compared to the original model output. Finally, a multimodel consensus forecast technique for TC intensity was developed based on the calibrated model output;this technique has 28%(15-20%) skill at 12 h(24-72 h) compared to the climatology and persistence forecasts of TC intensity. This consensus technique has greater skill than the consensus forecast based on the original model output and therefore it has the potential to be applied in operation. | HUI YU GUOMIN CHEN RIJIN WAN | 2015 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2015，4，3： | 0 |
| 4 | PERFORMANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2015显示文摘The operational track and intensity forecast errors of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of RSMC-Tokyo's 'best-track' dataset. The results showed that position errors for each official agency were under 80 km, 130 km, 180 km, 260 km and 370 km at 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hr lead time. Stepped decreases in the values of each quantile were made at every lead times and have been made by global models from 2010 to 2015, especially for long lead time. The results of the Track Forecast Integral Deviation(TFID) show a clearly decreasing trend for most global models, indicating that the TC forecast tracks became increasingly similar to the observations. In 2015, the intensity forecast skill scores for both global and regional models were almost negative. However, the skill of EPSs' intensity forecasting has made significant progress in the past year. | Guomin Chen Xiaotu LEI Xiping ZHANG Peiyan CHEN Hui YU Rijin WAN | 2016 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2016，5，3： | 0 |
| 5 | Climate trends in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation and wind over Shanghai显示文摘The trends in annual precipitation and wind induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)over Shanghai during the last 40 years are estimated.Results indicate that there is a significant increasing trend in the annual total precipitation induced by TCs,which is related to the significant positive trends in daily precipitation and annual torrential rain days.Meanwhile,a significant decreasing trend shows in maximum sustained wind,which seems to be related to the downward trend in the intensity of TCs when affecting Shanghai.The annual frequencies of affected TCs,TC translation speed and distance from Shanghai when affecting Shanghai have no obvious tendency.The different trends in precipitation and wind suggested that a more comprehensive metric for assessing TCs'influence on society is necessary. | Lina Bai Rijin Wan Rong Guo Ming Ying Rui Jin | 2022 | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2022，11，3： | 0 |
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