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| 1 | How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?显示文摘To feed the increasing world population,more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems.Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy.This review paper,from a land system perspective,systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change.By reviewing the current literatures,we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid fierce land competition,and it is likely to do less in increasing food production.Moreover,properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production.Climate change,dietary shifts,and other socio-economic drivers,which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems,should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation.And finally,crop-specific agricultural intensification would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land.Yet,only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps. | WU Wen-bin YU Qiang-yi Verburg H Peter YOU Liang-zhi YANG Peng TANG Hua-jun | 2014 | Journal of Integrative Agriculture2014，13，7： | 19 |
| 2 | 不同水资源情景下干旱区未来土地利用/覆盖变化模拟——以黑河中上游张掖市为例显示文摘应用回归分析方法确定对研究区土地利用/覆盖变化有重要贡献的10种驱动因子,用线性规划方法确定模型输入文件中模拟期间每年的各种土地利用类型面积.用ArcView空间分析的方法建立驱动力文件,利用SPSS13.0软件分析每种驱动力的权重(β值),建立Logistic方程,并将其作为模型输入文件.建立可利用水资源总量分别为18.0×108m3,26.5×108m3,35.0×108m3的3种情景假设,应用CLUE-S模型模拟张掖市2001—2020年土地利用/覆盖变化变化.模拟结果显示:1)三种情景下,耕地的面积都在减少,耕地面积的减少量与可利用水资源总量呈负相关;2)林草地面积在3种情景下均增加,林草地面积的变化与可利用水资源总量呈正相关;3)在3种情景假设下,水域面积的变化都不明显;4)城镇用地面积变化与水量也呈正相关;5)未利用地面积持续减少. | 张华 张勃 Peter Verburg | 2007 | 冰川冻土2007，29，3： | 18 |
| 3 | Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Rice Planting Area and Their Relationship to Climate Change in Northeast China: A Model-Based Analysis显示文摘Rice is one of the most important grain crops in Northeast China(NEC)and its cultivation is sensitive to climate change.This study aimed to explore the spatio-temporal changes in the NEC rice planting area over the period of 1980-2010 and to analyze their relationship to climate change.To do so,the CLUE-S(conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent)model was first updated and used to simulate dynamic changes in the rice planting area in NEC to understand spatio-temporal change trends during three periods:1980-1990,1990-2000 and 2000-2010.The changing results in individual periods were then linked to climatic variables to investigate the climatic drivers of these changes.Results showed that the NEC rice planting area expanded quickly and increased by nearly 4.5 times during 1980-2010.The concentration of newly planted rice areas in NEC constantly moved northward and the changes were strongly dependent on latitude.This confirmed that climate change,increases in temperature in particular,greatly influenced the shift in the rice planting area.The shift in the north limit of the NEC rice planting area generally followed a 1°C isoline migration pattern,but with an obvious time-lag effect.These findings can help policy makers and crop producers take proper adaptation measures even when exposed to the global warming situation in NEC. | XIA Tian WU Wen-bin ZHOU Qing-bo YU Qiang-yi Peter H Verburg YANG Peng LU Zhong-jun TANG Hua-jun | 2014 | Journal of Integrative Agriculture2014，13，7： | 12 |
| 4 | Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China显示文摘Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively,how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood.Survey-based data(presents farmers’personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change)associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data(presents real-world climate change)were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level.A case study at Bin County(1980s-2010s),Northeast China,suggested that increased annual average temperature(0.6°C per decade)and decreased annual precipitation(46 mm per decade,both from meteorological datasets)were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%,respectively,of farmers from the survey,and that a longer growing season was confirmed by 70%of them.These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change:Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice,which led to a significant yield increase for both crops.The longer season also affected crop choice:More farmers selected maize instead of soybean,as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area.Comparing warming-related factors,we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers’agricultural decisions.As a result,crop and variety selection,rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement,was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region. | YU Qiang-yi WU Wen-bin LIU Zhen-huan Peter H Verburg XIA Tian YANG Peng LU Zhong-jun YOU Liang-zhi TANG Hua-jun | 2014 | Journal of Integrative Agriculture2014，13，7： | 8 |
| 5 | From land cover change to land function dynamics: A major challenge to improve land characterization显示文摘 | Peter H. Verburg Jeannette van de Steeg A. Veldkamp Louise Willemen | 2008 | Journal of Environmental Management2008，，3： | 2 |
| 6 | Space for people, plants, and livestock? Quantifying interactions among multiple landscape functions in a Dutch rural region显示文摘 | Louise Willemen Lars Hein Martinus E.F. van Mensvoort Peter H. Verburg | 2009 | Ecological Indicators2009，，1： | 2 |
| 7 | From land cover change to land function dynamics: A major challenge to improve land characterization显示文摘 | Peter H. Verburg Jeannette van de Steeg A. Veldkamp Louise Willemen | 2008 | Journal of Environmental Management2008，，3： | 2 |
| 8 | Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China显示文摘 | Peter H Verburg Youqi Chen Tom (A.) Veldkamp | 2000 | Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment2000，，1： | 2 |
| 9 | Effects of interpolation and data resolution on methane emission estimates from rice paddies显示文摘 | Peter M. Van Bodegom Peter H. Verburg Alfred Stein Sri Adiningsih Hugo A.C. Denier Van Der Gon | 2002 | Environmental and Ecological Statistics2002，，1： | 1 |
| 10 | Land use change under conditions of high population pressure : the case of Java显示文摘 | Verburg H Peter Veldkamp A Tom | 1999 | Global Environ mental Change1999，9，4： | 1 |
| 11 | Framing land use dynamics显示文摘 | Peter Verburg Tom Veldkamp Martin Dijst | 2003 | LUCC Newsletter2003，9，： | 1 |
| 12 | Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities显示文摘 | Peter H. Verburg Paul P. Schot Martin J. Dijst A. Veldkamp | 2004 | GeoJournal2004，，4： | 1 |
| 13 | Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Regional Land Use: The CLUE-S Model显示文摘 | PETER H. VERBURG WELMOED SOEPBOER A. VELDKAMP RAMIL LIMPIADA VICTORIA ESPALDON SHARIFAH S.A. MASTURA | 2002 | Environmental Management2002，，3： | 1 |
| 14 | Challenges and opportunities in mapping land use intensity globally显示文摘 | Tobias Kuemmerle Karlheinz Erb Patrick Meyfroidt Daniel Müller Peter H Verburg Stephan Estel Helmut Haberl Patrick Hostert Martin R. Jepsen Thomas Kastner Christian Levers Marcus Lindner Christoph Plutzar Pieter Johannes Verkerk Emma H van der Zanden Anet | 2013 | Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability2013，，： | 1 |
| 15 | Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use:the CLUE-S model显示文摘 | Verburg Peter Veldkamp W Limpiada R | 2002 | Environmental Management2002，30，3： | 1 |
| 16 | Spatial explorations of land use change and grain production in China显示文摘 | Verburg Peter H Chen Youqi Veldkamp Tom A | 2000 | Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment2000，82，13： | 1 |
| 17 | Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use:the CLUE-S model显示文摘 | Verburg Peter Veldkamp W Limpiada R | 2002 | Environmental Management2002，30，3： | 1 |
| 18 | Combining exploratory scenarios and participatory backcasting: using an agent - based model in participatory policy design for a multi - functional landscape 显示文摘 | DEREK B VAN BERKEL- PETER H VERBURG | 2012 | Landscape Ecology2012，，27： | 1 |
| 19 | Analysis of the effects of land use change on protected areas in the Philippines显示文摘 | Peter H. Verburg Koen P. Overmars Marco G.A. Huigen Wouter T. de Groot A. Veldkamp | 2005 | Applied Geography2005，，2： | 1 |
| 20 | Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use?: the CLUE-S model显示文摘 | Verburg Peter W Veldkamp R Limpiada | 2002 | Environmental Management2002，30，3： | 1 |
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