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您的检索式：作者名="Winston Garira"
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| 1 | A primer on multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems显示文摘The development of multiscale models of infectious disease systems is a scientific endeavour whose progress depends on advances on three main frontiers:(a)the conceptual framework frontier,(b)the mathematical technology or technical frontier,and(c)the scientific applications frontier.The objective of this primer is to introduce foundational concepts in multiscale modelling of infectious disease systems focused on these three main frontiers.On the conceptual framework frontier we propose a three-level hierarchical framework as a foundational idea which enables the discussion of the structure of multiscale models of infectious disease systems in a general way.On the scientific applications frontier we suggest ways in which the different structures of multiscale models can serve as infrastructure to provide new knowledge on the control,elimination and even eradication of infectious disease systems,while on the mathematical technology or technical frontier we present some challenges that modelers face in developing appropriate multiscale models of infectious disease systems.We anticipate that the foundational concepts presented in this primer will be central in articulating an integrated and more refined disease control theory based on multiscale modelling-the all-encompassing quantitative representation of an infectious disease system. | Winston Garira | 2018 | Infectious Disease Modelling2018，3，1： | 0 |
| 2 | The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics:Its aims,assumptions and limitations显示文摘Most of the progress in the development of single scale mathematical and computational models for the study of infectious disease dynamics which now span over a century is build on a body of knowledge that has been developed to address particular single scale descriptions of infectious disease dynamics based on understanding disease transmission process.Although this single scale understanding of infectious disease dynamics is now founded on a body of knowledge with a long history,dating back to over a century now,that knowledge has not yet been formalized into a scientific theory.In this article,we formalize this accumulated body of knowledge into a scientific theory called the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics which states that at every scale of organization of an infectious disease system,disease dynamics is determined by transmission as the main dynamic disease process.Therefore,the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics can be seen as formalizing knowledge that has been inherent in the study of infectious disease dynamics using single scale mathematical and computational models for over a century now.The objective of this article is to summarize this existing knowledge about single scale modelling of infectious dynamics by means of a scientific theory called the transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics and highlight its aims,assumptions and limitations. | Winston Garira Bothwell Maregere | 2023 | Infectious Disease Modelling2023，8，1： | 0 |
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