| 1 | Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory显示文摘Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results. | LI Xiang WANG Xinyuan SHAO Wei XIA Linyi ZHANG Guangsheng TIAN Bing LI Wenda PENG Peng | 2007 | Chinese Geographical Science2007，17，1： | 10 |
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