| 1 | Probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble forecasts and EMOS method for TGR inflow显示文摘Probabilistic inflow forecasts can quantify the uncertainty involved in the forecasting process and provide useful risk information for reservoir management.This study proposed a probabilistic inflow forecasting scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)at 1-3 d lead times.The post-processing method Ensemble Model Output Statistics(EMOS)is used to derive probabilistic inflow forecasts from ensemble inflow forecasts.Considering the inherent skew feature of the inflow series,lognormal and gamma distributions are used as EMOS predictive distributions in addition to conventional normal distribution.Results show that TGR's ensemble inflow forecasts at 1-3 d lead times perform well with high model efficiency and small mean absolute error.Underestimation of forecasting uncertainty is observed for the raw ensemble inflow forecasts with biased probability integral transform(PIT)histograms.The three EMOS probabilistic forecasts outperform the raw ensemble forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic performance at 1-3 d lead times.The EMOS results are more reliable with much flatter PIT histograms,coverage rates approximate to the nominal coverage 89.47%and satisfactory sharpness.Results also show that EMOS with gamma distribution is superior to normal and lognormal distributions.This research can provide reliable probabilistic inflow forecasts without much variation of TGR5s operational inflow forecasting procedure. | Yixuan ZHONG Shenglian GUO Feng XIONG Dedi LIU Huanhuan BA Xushu WU | 2020 | Frontiers of Earth Science2020，14，1： | 3 |
| 2 | Differentiating electrophysiological response to decrease and increase negative emotion regulation显示文摘We investigated the reappraisal and the time course of negative emotion regulation by performing event-related potential (ERP) recordings. We found that negative pictures elicited more positive P2 and late positivity potential (LPP) deflections than neutral pictures. This effect occurred between 150-2000 ms post-stimulus. Compared to the emotion maintaining condition, the emotion enhancing condition was associated with higher arousal ratings and displayed increased P2 and LPP amplitudes. The decrease condition was also associated with reduced picture-induced arousal; however, it led to increased P2 and LPP amplitudes. Furthermore, when compared with the maintain condition, both the enhancing and decrease conditions significantly enhanced LPP in the early stage (350-750 ms). Compared to previous studies using western subjects, the negative emotion LPP effects of the present study were shorter in duration and the decrease-emotion condition elicited larger LPPs. | WU HaiYan TANG Ping HUANG XuShu HU XiaoQing LUO YueJia | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，13： | 1 |
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