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| 1 | Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia显示文摘During the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI), simulating the change trends of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia under different climate scenarios is a key ecological issue. The HLZ ecosystem model was improved to simulate the changes in the spatial distribution and types of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia based on the climate data from Eurasian meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010 and the data from the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5 from 2010 to 2100. Ecological diversity and patch connectivity index models were used to quantitatively calculate the future changes in ecological diversity and patch connectivity of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia. The results show that(1) cold temperate wet forest, cool temperate moist forest and desert are the major terrestrial ecosystem types and cover 36.71% of the total area of Eurasia.(2) Under all three scenarios, the polar/nival area would shrink more than other terrestrial ecosystem types and would decrease by 26.75 million km2 per decade on average, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would have the fastest decreasing rate of 10.49% per decade on average from 2010 to 2100.(3) Under the RCP85 scenario, the rate of terrestrial ecosystem changes will be greater than that under the other two scenarios, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would exhibit the fastest decreasing rate of 10.88% per decade from 2010 to 2100.(4) The ecological diversity would generally show decreasing trends and decrease by 0.09%, 0.13% and 0.16% per decade on average under the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios,respectively.(5) The patch connectivity would first increase and then decrease under all three scenarios. In general, the trends of the changes in terrestrial ecosystems would show an obvious difference in the different regions throughout the BRI area. | Zemeng FAN Bin FAN Tianxiang YUE | 2019 | Science China Earth Sciences2019，62，10： | 11 |
| 2 | Sensitivity studies of a high accuracy surface modeling method显示文摘The sensitivities of the initial value and the sampling information to the accuracy of a high accuracy surface modeling(HASM) are investigated and the implementations of this new modeling method are modified and enhanced. Based on the fundamental theorem of surface theory, HASM is developed to correct the error produced in geographical information system and ecological modeling process. However, the earlier version of HASM is theoretically incomplete and its initial value must be produced by other surface modeling methods, such as spline, which limit its promotion. In other words, we must use other interpolators to drive HASM. According to the fundamental theorem of surface theory, we modify HASM, namely HASM.MOD, by adding another important nonlinear equation to make it independent of other methods and, at the same time, have a complete and solid theory foundation. Two mathematic surfaces and monthly mean temperature of 1951–2010 are used to validate the effectiveness of the new method. Experiments show that the modified version of HASM is insensitive to the selection of initial value which is particular important for HASM. We analyze the sensitivities of sampling error and sampling ratio to the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. It is found that sampling information plays an important role in the simulation accuracy of HASM.MOD. Another feature of the modified version of HASM is that it is theoretically perfect as it considers the third equation of the surface theory which reflects the local warping of the surface. The modified HASM may be useful with a wide range of spatial interpolation as it would no longer rely on other interpolation methods. | ZHAO Na YUE TianXiang ZHAO MingWei DU ZhengPing FAN ZeMeng CHEN ChuanFa | 2014 | Science China Earth Sciences2014，57，10： | 9 |
| 3 | Land-cover changes of national nature reserves in China显示文摘为阻止生态系统降级,保护自然产地并且保存在产地以内的生物多样性, 2588 个自然保护区在 2010 的结束在中国被建立了。全部的区域直到 1.4944 亿哈并且盖住超过 15% 汉语陆上的表面。作为生物多样性变化的主要驱动程序,陆地封面变化直接影响生态系统结构和函数。在这篇论文, 180 个国家自然保护区(NNR ) 被选择,他们的全部的区域是 4471 万哈,为在中国的 29.9% 所有 NNR 的财务。以生态系统特征和他们的主要保护的目标,所有选择 NNR 被分类进 7 种类型。陆地封面(PNCIL ) 的一个积极、否定的变化索引被开发从 1980 年代末分析每种 NNR 类型的陆地封面变化到 2005。结果证明除了森林生态系统储备,所有选择 NNR 类型的陆地封面与逐渐地减轻的降级的减少的率,而是率有 degradated 到某个度。在所有核心地区的陆地封面的吝啬的积极、否定的变化率分别地在 0.69% 和 0.16% 减少了。在核心地区的陆地封面的风景模式在缓冲区地区和试验性的地区是比那更稳定的。而且,在选择 NNR 的陆地封面的生态的差异和补丁连接通常增加了。简言之,在中国的 180 选择 NNR 的陆地封面在建立的 NNR 以后有一个有益的变化趋势,特别在 1995 和 2005 之间。 | FAN Zemeng ZHANG Xuan LI Jing YUE Tianxiang LIU Jiyuan XIANG Bao KUANG Wenhui | 2013 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2013，23，2： | 8 |
| 4 | A fundamental theorem for eco-environmental surface modelling and its applications显示文摘We propose a fundamental theorem for eco-environmental surface modelling(FTEEM) in order to apply it into the fields of ecology and environmental science more easily after the fundamental theorem for Earth’s surface system modeling(FTESM). The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region is taken as a case area to conduct empirical studies of algorithms for spatial upscaling, spatial downscaling, spatial interpolation, data fusion and model-data assimilation, which are based on high accuracy surface modelling(HASM), corresponding with corollaries of FTEEM. The case studies demonstrate how eco-environmental surface modelling is substantially improved when both extrinsic and intrinsic information are used along with an appropriate method of HASM. Compared with classic algorithms, the HASM-based algorithm for spatial upscaling reduced the root-meansquare error of the BTH elevation surface by 9 m. The HASM-based algorithm for spatial downscaling reduced the relative error of future scenarios of annual mean temperature by 16%. The HASM-based algorithm for spatial interpolation reduced the relative error of change trend of annual mean precipitation by 0.2%. The HASM-based algorithm for data fusion reduced the relative error of change trend of annual mean temperature by 70%. The HASM-based algorithm for model-data assimilation reduced the relative error of carbon stocks by 40%. We propose five theoretical challenges and three application problems of HASM that need to be addressed to improve FTEEM. | Tianxiang YUE Na ZHAO Yu LIU Yifu WANG Bin ZHANG Zhengping DU Zemeng FAN Wenjiao SHI Chuanfa CHEN Mingwei ZHAO Dunjiang SONG Shihai WANG Yinjun SONG Changqing YAN Qiquan LI Xiaofang SUN Lili ZHANG Yongzhong TIAN Wei WANG Ying’an WANG Shengnan MA Hongsheng HUANG Yimin LU Qing WANG Chenliang WANG Yuzhu WANG Ming LU Wei ZHOU Yi LIU Xiaozhe YIN Zong WANG Zhengyi BAO Miaomiao ZHAO Yapeng ZHAO Yimeng JIAO Ufra NASEER Bin FAN Saibo LI Yang YANG John PWILSON | 2020 | Science China Earth Sciences2020，63，8： | 7 |
| 5 | Scenarios of land cover in China 显示文摘 | Yue Tianxiang Fan Zemeng Liu Jiyuan | 2007 | Global and Planetary Change2007，55，4： | 1 |
| 6 | Spatial identification and scenario simulation of the ecological transition zones under the climate change in China显示文摘Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs)and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change.In this study,a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ)model.Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010)period,and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5)RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040),T2(2041–2070),and T3(2071–2100)periods,the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0,T1,T2,and T3.Additionally,a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3.The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China,accounting for 18%of the whole land area.Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2),cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2),and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2)were the main ETZ types,accounting for 35%of the total ETZ area in China.Between 2010 and 2100,the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4%per decade,which represented an increase of 3604.2,10063.1,and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future.The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs,with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition,with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation,the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend,while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually,and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas.The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China,especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. | FAN Zemeng | 2021 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2021，31，4： | 0 |
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