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| 1 | Advancement and prospect of short-term numerical climate prediction显示文摘The defects of present methods of short-term numerical climate prediction are discussed in this paper, and four challenging problems are put forward. Considering our under developed computer conditions, we should innovate in the approcuch of numerical climate prediction on the basis of our own achievements and experiences in the field of short-term numerical climate prediction. It is possibly an effective way to settle the present defects of short-term numerical climate prediction. | CHOU Jifan & XU Ming1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 2. Training Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China | 2001 | Chinese Science Bulletin2001，46，18： | 11 |
| 2 | Forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components显示文摘Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components is proposed.Based on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere,predictable components and unpredictable random components are separated by using the standpoint of error growth in a numerical model.The predictable components are defined as those with slow error growth at a given range,which are not sensitive to small errors in initial conditions. A numerical model for predictable components(NMPC)is established,by filtering random components with poor predictability.The aim is to maintain predictable components and avoid the influence of rapidly growing forecast errors on small scales. Meanwhile,the analogue-dynamical approach(ADA)is used to correct forecast errors of predictable components,to decrease model error and statistically take into account the influence of random components.The scheme is applied to operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA).Prediction results show that the scheme can improve forecast skill of predictable components to some extent, especially in high predictability regions.Forecast skill at zonal wave zero is improved more than for ultra-long waves and synoptic-scale waves.Results show good agreement with predictability of spatial scale.As a result,the scheme can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast skill,which favors operational use. | ZHENG ZhiHai HUANG JianPing FENG GuoLin CHOU JiFan | 2013 | Science China Earth Sciences2013，56，5： | 9 |
| 3 | Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia显示文摘基于 19832011 CMAP 数据,在东亚的降水异例和它的附近的海区域(此后叫的东亚为短) 在 1999 前表明 ++ 模式并且 + 模式以后;这个十的变化在相应 EOF3 部件主要被包含。然而, NCC_CGCM 预报结果是相当不同的,它在 1999 前揭示 ++ 模式并且 ++ 模式以后。同时,基于这些关键 SST 区域改进 NCC_CGCMs 预报精确性的概率被讨论,并且动态统计的联合预报计划为增加在东亚在夏天降水包含的十的变化的信息被构造。独立样品预报结果显示这个预报计划罐头有效地修改十的变化信息在东亚在夏天降水包含了的 NCC_CGCMs (特别在 30 敢琠敨攠癮 的区域吗?? | GONG ZhiQiang ZHAO JunHu FENG GuoLin CHOU JiFan | 2015 | Science China Earth Sciences2015，58，3： | 7 |
| 4 | Forming proper ensemble forecast initial members with four-dimensional variational data assimilation method显示文摘A method has been presented to improve ensemble forecast by utilizing these initial members generated by four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4-D VDA), to conquer limitation of those initial members generated by Monte Carlo forecast (MCF) or lagged average forecast (LAF). This method possesses significant statistical characteristic of MCF, and by virtue of LAF that contains multi-time information and its initial members are harmonic with | Jiandong Gong Weijing Li Jifan Chou | 1999 | Chinese Science Bulletin1999，44，16： | 6 |
| 5 | Dynamical analysis on splitting of subtropical high-pressure zone——Geostrophic effect显示文摘Based on two simple dynamical models, the preliminary dynamical analysis of the splitting of subtropical high_pressure zone (SHPZ) without land_sea contrast and orographic effect is investigated. Results show that the splitting of SHPZ may be an intrinsic attribute of the earth rotation atmosphere. | Jianping Li Jifan Chou | 1998 | Chinese Science Bulletin1998，43，15： | 6 |
| 6 | Large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes and their transition modes in summertime over China显示文摘Seven large-scale low-frequency rainfall regimes (LFRRs) in summertime are identified for China in a 10-dimensional phase space by using a 40-year daily precipitation dataset. Corresponding to the local extrema of observed probability density in phase space, the LFRRs are characterized by the persistence and transitions that reflect the spread and jump features of low-frequency rainfall centers. The LFRRs are generally consistent with summer monsoon rainbelts on the intraseasonal timescale, and there exist the preferred transition relationships between the LFRRs. Four LFRRs’ transition modes (LFRRTMs), which are the dominant components of the interannual and intraseasonal variability of sum- mer rainfall in China, are further induced. Analyses of atmospheric circulation system show that the anomalies of the subtropical high over the western Pacific (SHWP) and blockings in mid-high latitudes, the low-latitude circulation anomalies, and the wavetrains over the East Asia-Pacific region (EAPWs), play crucial roles in the occurrence and transitions of the LFRRs. Moreover, the evolution of the SHWP and blockings, the distribution and movement of the EAPWs, and the intraseasonal variability of the East Asian-Pacific jet stream may be principal factors of the formations of the LFRRTMs. | REN Hongli ZHANG Peiqun CHOU Jifan LI Weijing GAO Li | 2006 | Chinese Science Bulletin2006，51，11： | 6 |
| 7 | Computational stability of the forced dissipative nonlinear atmospheric equations显示文摘A new concept of computational quasi-stability (CQS) is introduced to study the computational stability (CS) of the forced dissipative nonlinear (FDN) evolution equations. Based on the concept, the CQS criterion of difference scheme of FDN atmospheric equations is obtained. So it provides the theoretical basis for designing the computational stable difference scheme of FDN atmospheric equations. | LI Jianping and CHOU Jifan LASG , Institute of Atmospheric Physics , Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100080, China Department of Atmospheric Sciences , Lanzhou University , Lanzhou 730000, China Beijing Meteorological College, Beijing 100081, China | 1999 | Chinese Science Bulletin1999，44，10： | 5 |
| 8 | An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:Part I—Model Error Estimation by Iteration显示文摘Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction(NWP) due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations.To eliminate these errors,by considering NWP as an inverse problem,an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data,which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model(model error,denoted as ME). In this first paper of a two-part series,an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented,and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover,two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES-GFS) for July–August 2009 and January–February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature(SST) were both based on NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(final) data.The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then,off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors,but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS. | XUE Haile SHEN Xueshun CHOU Jifan | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，10： | 2 |
| 9 | Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction显示文摘This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications. | WANG QiGuang CHOU JiFan FENG GuoLin | 2014 | Science China Earth Sciences2014，57，7： | 1 |
| 10 | An overview of the Semi-arid Climate and Environment Research Observatory over the Loess Plateau显示文摘 | Jianping Huang Wu Zhang Jinqing Zuo Jianrong Bi Jinsen Shi Xin Wang Zhoulin Chang Zhongwei Huang Su Yang Beidou Zhang Guoyin Wang Guanghong Feng Jiuyi Yuan Lei Zhang Hongchao Zuo Shigong Wang Congbin Fu Chou Jifan | | 0，2008，： | 1 |
| 11 | An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:PartⅡ——Systematic Model Error Correction显示文摘An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors(MEs) in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval(6 h) between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year(2001–2005) GRAPESGFS(Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) error patterns and evolution,a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(final) data.The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient. | XUE Haile SHEN Xueshun CHOU Jifan | 2015 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2015，32，11： | 0 |
| 12 | Theory of three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation显示文摘This paper reviews the three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation(3P-DGAC)developed in recent years,including the decomposition model and the dynamical equations of global horizontal,meridional,and zonal circulations.Compared with the traditional two-dimensional(2D)circulation decomposition method,the 3P-DGAC can effectively decompose the actual vertical vorticity into two components that are caused by the horizontal circulation and convergent/divergent movement(associated with the meridional and zonal circulations).It also decomposes the vertical velocity into the components of the meridional vertical circulation and the zonal vertical circulation,thus providing a new method to study the dynamical influences of convergent/divergent motions on the evolution of actual vertical vorticity and an accurate description of local vertical circulations.The 3P-DGAC is a three-dimensional(3D)circulation decomposition method based on the main characteristics of the actual atmospheric movements.The horizontal,meridional,and zonal circulations after the 3P-DGAC are the global generalization of Rossby waves in the middle-high latitudes and Hadley and Walker circulations in low latitudes.Therefore,the three-pattern decomposition model and its dynamical equations provide novel theoretical tools for studying complex interactions between middle-high and low latitude circulations as well as the physical mechanisms of the abnormal evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulations under the background of global warming. | Shujuan HU Bingqian ZHOU Chenbin GAO Zhihang XU Qingwan WANG Jifan CHOU | 2020 | Science China Earth Sciences2020，63，9： | 0 |
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